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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ipswich Town win with a probability of 41.02%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 33.48% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ipswich Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ipswich Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Ipswich Town |
33.48% ( -0) | 25.5% ( -0.01) | 41.02% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 55.44% ( 0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.59% ( 0.05) | 48.41% ( -0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.45% ( 0.04) | 70.55% ( -0.05) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.39% ( 0.02) | 27.61% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.86% ( 0.03) | 63.14% ( -0.03) |
Ipswich Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.59% ( 0.03) | 23.41% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.6% ( 0.04) | 57.4% ( -0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Ipswich Town |
1-0 @ 8.32% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.77% 2-0 @ 5.35% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.34% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.42% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.3% 4-1 @ 1.07% ( 0) Other @ 2.91% Total : 33.48% | 1-1 @ 12.07% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.46% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.5% | 0-1 @ 9.38% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.77% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.81% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4.24% ( 0) 0-3 @ 3.3% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.73% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.54% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.2% ( 0) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 2.05% Total : 41.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
2 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 30 |
3 | Wrexham | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 28 |
4 | Barnsley | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 25 |
5 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 25 |
6 | Stockport CountyStockport | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 24 |
7 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 24 |
8 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 23 |
9 | Reading | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 23 |
10 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 23 |
11 | Exeter CityExeter | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 22 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 27 | 4 | 21 |
13 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 19 |
14 | Stevenage | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 18 |
15 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 17 |
16 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 17 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 16 |
18 | Blackpool | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 16 |
19 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14 |
20 | Leyton Orient | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 14 |
21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 12 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 10 |
23 | Burton Albion | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 8 |
24 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 8 |
> League One Full Table |