League One

League One | Gameweek 29

Mar 7, 2023 at 8pm UK

Home Park

Plymouth
2 - 1
Derby

Wright (59'), Hardie (70' pen.)
Wilson (19'), Matete (89')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Mendez-Laing (17')
Knight (90+4')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Plymouth Argyle and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Plymouth Argyle

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Plymouth 2-0 Charlton
Saturday, March 4 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 2-2 Shrewsbury
Saturday, March 4 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Plymouth Argyle 2-1 Derby County

Plymouth bounced back from a humiliating defeat at Peterborough by beating Charlton on Saturday, and they will realise three points against Derby in this one would go in a long way in securing their position in the top two. The Rams need to find some consistency if they are to challenge the likes of the Pilgrims and Ipswich for a top-two berth, but we see Warne's men narrowly losing out on Tuesday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 44.94%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Plymouth Argyle in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Plymouth Argyle.

Result
Plymouth Argyle	Draw	Derby County
44.94% ( -0.02)	25.46% ( 0.01)	29.6% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 53.93% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.36% (

-0.02)

49.64% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.34% (

-0.02)

71.66% (

0.02)

Plymouth Argyle Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.94% (

-0.02)

22.06% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.59% (

-0.02)

55.4% (

0.02)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.19% (

30.81% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.92% (

67.08% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Plymouth Argyle 44.94%

Derby County 29.6%

Draw 25.46%

Plymouth Argyle	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 10.27% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.14% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.76% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.6% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.91% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.71% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.74% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.48% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 2.3% Total : 44.94%	1-1 @ 12.09% 0-0 @ 6.8% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.38% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.46%	0-1 @ 8% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.12% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.71% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.8% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.11% 0-3 @ 1.85% ( 0) Other @ 3.01% Total : 29.6%