League One

League One | Gameweek 27

Jan 6, 2024 at 12.30pm UK

Highbury Stadium

Fleetwood
1 - 3
Derby

Stockley (76')
Vela (31')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Mendez-Laing (27'), Collins (45+1'), Barkhuizen (90')
Collins (74')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Fleetwood Town and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Fleetwood Town

All competitions

Last Game: Shrewsbury 3-1 Fleetwood
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 2-3 Peterborough
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Fleetwood Town 0-2 Derby County

Derby's promotion bid may have received a setback on Monday, but we think that the Rams will return to winning ways against a Fleetwood side that have lost three of their last four home games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 57.85%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 19.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.13%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.69%), while for a Fleetwood Town win it was 1-0 (5.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Fleetwood Town	Draw	Derby County
19.61% ( 0.01)	22.54% ( 0.01)	57.85% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 52.54%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.69% (

-0.01)

46.31% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.4% (

-0.01)

68.6% (

0.01)

Fleetwood Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.35% (

37.65%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.57% (

74.43%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.27% (

-0)

15.73% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.18% (

-0.02)

44.82% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Fleetwood Town 19.61%

Derby County 57.85%

Draw 22.53%

Fleetwood Town	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 5.78% ( 0) 2-1 @ 5.23% ( 0) 2-0 @ 2.83% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.7% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.57% 3-0 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 1.58% Total : 19.61%	1-1 @ 10.69% 0-0 @ 5.92% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.83% 3-3 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.53%	0-1 @ 10.95% 0-2 @ 10.13% 1-2 @ 9.9% 0-3 @ 6.25% ( -0) 1-3 @ 6.1% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.98% ( -0) 0-4 @ 2.89% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.82% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.38% ( -0) 0-5 @ 1.07% ( -0) 1-5 @ 1.04% ( -0) Other @ 2.34% Total : 57.85%