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League One
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League One | Gameweek 24
Dec 26, 2023 at 3pm UK
The DW Stadium
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Wigan
0 - 1
Derby


Morrison (14'), Adeeko (15'), Clare (36'), Lang (45')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Nelson (19')
Hourihane (7'), Mendez-Laing (35'), Collins (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Wigan Athletic and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wigan Athletic

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Reading 2-0 Wigan
Saturday, December 23 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 3-1 Lincoln
Thursday, December 21 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Wigan Athletic 1-2 Derby County

 Looking at past results between Wigan and Derby County, we anticipate a cagey Boxing Day at the DW Stadium. Warne's men head into the game as one of the most in-form sides in the division and we fancy them claiming all three points in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 49.38%. A win for Wigan Athletic had a probability of 25.61% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.46%) and 0-2 (8.82%). The likeliest Wigan Athletic win was 1-0 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Derby County in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Wigan AthleticDrawDerby County
25.61% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02) 25.01% (0.0030000000000001 0) 49.38% (0.016000000000005 0.02)
Both teams to score 52.39% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.75% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)50.25% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.79% (-0.032 -0.03)72.2% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Wigan Athletic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.79% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)34.21% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.09% (-0.038 -0.04)70.9% (0.036999999999992 0.04)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.63% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)20.37% (0.0059999999999967 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.22% (-0.012 -0.01)52.77% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Wigan Athletic 25.61%
    Derby County 49.37%
    Draw 25%
Wigan AthleticDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 7.47% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-1 @ 6.38% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-0 @ 4.01% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 2.28% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
3-2 @ 1.82% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 1.43% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 25.61%
1-1 @ 11.89%
0-0 @ 6.97% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.08% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-3 @ 0.96% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25%
0-1 @ 11.08% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 9.46%
0-2 @ 8.82% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
1-3 @ 5.02% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-3 @ 4.68% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 2.69% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
1-4 @ 2% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-4 @ 1.86% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-4 @ 1.07% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 49.37%

How you voted: Wigan vs Derby

Wigan Athletic
25.0%
Draw
25.0%
Derby County
50.0%
8
Head to Head
Aug 5, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 1
Derby
1-2
Wigan
Forsyth (57')
Smith (37'), Cashin (48')
Wyke (37', 72')
Hughes (49'), Smith (88')
> Preview
Dec 26, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 24
Wigan
1-1
Derby
Garner (81')
Evans (61')
Waghorn (93')
Bielik (22'), Bogle (30'), Lawrence (43')
> Match Report
Oct 23, 2019 7.45pm
Gameweek 13
Derby
1-0
Wigan
Shinnie (91')
Shinnie (64'), Malone (65')

Robinson (51'), Macleod (92')
> Match Report
Mar 5, 2019 7.45pm
Gameweek 33
Derby
2-1
Wigan
Bennett (62'), Malone (78')
Johnson (41'), Bennett (59'), Wilson (63'), Tomori (71')
Massey (25')
Morsy (37')
> Match Report
Dec 8, 2018 3pm
Gameweek 21
Wigan
0-1
Derby

Morsy (32')
Naismith (15')
Marriott (21')
Wilson (32'), Bryson (76')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe1392231161529
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1292123111229
3Wrexham1374221101125
4Mansfield TownMansfield127322014624
5Lincoln CityLincoln137332016424
6Bolton WanderersBolton137242219323
7Huddersfield TownHuddersfield137151912722
8Barnsley136432118322
9Reading137152120122
10Stockport CountyStockport145632017321
11Exeter CityExeter126151310319
12Charlton AthleticCharlton135441514119
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough145362526-118
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham144551416-217
15Stevenage145271015-517
16Blackpool134452125-416
17Bristol Rovers135171520-516
18Northampton TownNorthampton134361720-315
19Wigan AthleticWigan133551211114
20Leyton Orient133281118-711
21Crawley TownCrawley143291225-1311
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge123181117-610
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1422101325-128
24Burton Albion130581325-125
> League One Full Table


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