EFL Trophy | Third Round

Jan 9, 2024 at 7pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
0 - 1
Bradford

Nelson (55')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Stubbs (67')
Ridehalgh (40'), Smallwood (58'), Gilliead (76')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Trophy clash between Derby County and Bradford City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

EFL Trophy

Last Game: Fleetwood 1-3 Derby
Saturday, January 6 at 12.30pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bradford City

All competitions

EFL Trophy

Last Game: Bradford 2-4 Crawley
Saturday, January 6 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Derby County 3-1 Bradford City

Although Bradford have struggled in recent league games, they have won all four games in the EFL Trophy to seal their place in the last 16. However, we think that their fine run in the competition will be brought to an end by an in-form Derby side that has won four of their last five competitive matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 56.19%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Bradford City had a probability of 20.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a Bradford City win it was 0-1 (5.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Bradford City
56.19% ( -0.31)	22.82% ( 0.12)	20.99% ( 0.2)

Both teams to score 53.84% (

-0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.34% (

-0.25)

45.66% (

0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.02% (

-0.24)

67.98% (

0.24)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.94% (

-0.19)

16.06% (

0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.57% (

-0.36)

45.43% (

0.36)

Bradford City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.14% (

0.06)

35.86% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.37% (

0.06)

72.63% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Derby County 56.19%

Bradford City 20.99%

Draw 22.81%

Derby County	Draw	Bradford City
1-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.88% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.63% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 6.02% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 5.87% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.09% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.75% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 2.68% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.34% Total : 56.19%	1-1 @ 10.8% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 5.76% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.07% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.81%	0-1 @ 5.91% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 5.54% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.03% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.86% Total : 20.99%