We said: Manchester United 2-1 Aston Villa
This is a very difficult game to call, and Villa will fancy their chances of winning at Old Trafford, with the hosts having their problems in recent matches. Man United's defeat to Wolves could actually work against Villa, though, and we are backing the Red Devils to advance to round four with a narrow success.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 52.26%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 25.23% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.27%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (6.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.
