Euro Champ Qualifying | Final
Mar 26, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Cardiff City Stadium
Wales0 - 0Poland
Poland win 5-4 on penalties
The Match
Match Report
Wales' Euro 2024 dreams come to a heartbreaking end as Poland win their playoff final 5-4 on penalties following a goalless draw in 120 minutes.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Wales and Poland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Wales 4-1 Finland
Thursday, March 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Thursday, March 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Poland 5-1 Estonia
Thursday, March 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Thursday, March 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Albania | 8 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Czech Republic | 8 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Poland | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Moldova | 8 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | Faroe Islands | 8 | -11 | 2 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 45.57%. A win for Poland had a probability of 27.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Poland win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wales | Draw | Poland |
45.57% ( 0.74) | 26.57% ( -0.21) | 27.86% ( -0.53) |
| Both teams to score 49.45% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.05% ( 0.5) | 54.95% ( -0.5) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.77% ( 0.41) | 76.23% ( -0.41) |
| Wales Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.95% ( 0.58) | 24.05% ( -0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.68% ( 0.82) | 58.32% ( -0.82) |
| Poland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.11% ( -0.15) | 34.89% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.37% ( -0.16) | 71.63% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
Wales 45.56%
Poland 27.86%
Draw 26.57%
| Wales | Draw | Poland |
| 1-0 @ 11.95% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 8.97% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.6% Total : 45.56% | 1-1 @ 12.59% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 8.39% ( -0.16)2-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.87% Total : 26.57% | 0-1 @ 8.84% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 6.63% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.13% Total : 27.86% |
How you voted: Wales vs Poland
Wales
32.0%Draw
15.0%Poland
53.0%300
