Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 14, 2023 at 2pm UK

NSK Olimpijs'kyj

Ukraine
2 - 0
N. Macedonia

Sudakov (30'), Karavaev (90+5')
Malinovskyi (69'), Zinchenko (90+6')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Milevski (70'), Ademi (90+4'), Serafimov (90+2')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Ukraine and North Macedonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ukraine

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Italy 2-1 Ukraine
Tuesday, September 12 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	5	14	13
2	Italy	4	2	7
3	Ukraine	5	-1	7
4	North Macedonia	5	-5	7
5	Malta	5	-10	0

North Macedonia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Malta 0-2 N. Macedonia
Tuesday, September 12 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	5	14	13
2	Italy	4	2	7
3	Ukraine	5	-1	7
4	North Macedonia	5	-5	7
5	Malta	5	-10	0

We said: Ukraine 2-1 North Macedonia

The withdrawals of key attackers Yarmolenko and Tsygankov was not on Rebrov's bingo card for October's crucial fixtures, but Mudryk and Ruslan Malinovskyi represent competent alternatives for a side who gave runaway leaders England a good run for their money last month. Revenge will be on the minds of North Macedonia following June's late collapse, but we still have faith in Ukraine to come up trumps in a tight contest and open up a healthy lead over the Lynxes in Group C. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ukraine win with a probability of 61.17%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for North Macedonia had a probability of 15.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ukraine win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.15%) and 2-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.84%), while for a North Macedonia win it was 0-1 (6.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ukraine would win this match.

Result
Ukraine	Draw	North Macedonia
61.17% ( 2.32)	23.76% ( -0.85)	15.08% ( -1.47)

Both teams to score 40.69% (

-0.67)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.35% (

0.76)

57.65% (

-0.76)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.59% (

0.6)

78.41% (

-0.6)

Ukraine Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.38% (

1.17)

18.62% (

-1.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.08% (

1.93)

49.92% (

-1.92)

North Macedonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50% (

-1.56)

50% (

1.57)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.34% (

-1.11)

84.66% (

1.11)

Score Analysis

Ukraine 61.16%

North Macedonia 15.08%

Draw 23.75%

Ukraine	Draw	North Macedonia
1-0 @ 15.64% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 13.15% ( 0.58) 2-1 @ 9.12% ( -0) 3-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.58) 3-1 @ 5.11% ( 0.18) 4-0 @ 3.1% ( 0.35) 4-1 @ 2.15% ( 0.15) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.15) Other @ 2.72% Total : 61.16%	1-1 @ 10.84% ( -0.41) 0-0 @ 9.31% ( -0.27) 2-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.15) Other @ 0.44% Total : 23.75%	0-1 @ 6.45% ( -0.49) 1-2 @ 3.76% ( -0.32) 0-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.28) Other @ 2.63% Total : 15.08%