In the first of three decisive games in the opening round of the MLS Cup playoffs on Saturday, FC Cincinnati host New York City FC at TQL Stadium.
A 3-1 win for the Boys in Blue last weekend at Citi Field evened that best-of-three series at one, forcing this deciding game in Cincinnati.
Match preview
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After such a strong showing in game one, we saw a poor Cincinnati side show up in Queens last week as they were outplayed in the middle of the park for most of the 90 minutes.
That was the first defeat that the Orange and Blue had ever suffered in the opening round of the playoffs, putting them in a must-win situation on Saturday.
Pat Noonan's men ended a two-match MLS home losing run in game one of this series, but they have not won consecutive domestic encounters at TQL Stadium since May.
Counting the playoffs, Cincinnati won 15 league fixtures this year by a single goal, including a 1-0 triumph in the opening game of this series.
The Orange and Blue collected 11 points during the regular season when conceding the opening goal, winning three times in that scenario.
Cincy have never been eliminated in the opening round of the playoffs, posting three clean sheets in their four post-season home contests all-time.
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The Pigeons lived to fight another day, winning the midfield battle on home soil last week, giving them a chance to make the second round of the playoffs for a second time in three seasons.
That triumph also ended a two-match MLS losing run for them in what was their first post-season triumph since the 2022 Eastern Conference semi-finals (3-1 win over CF Montreal).
New York City have not been eliminated from the opening round of the playoffs since suffering a shootout defeat against Orlando City (6-5) in 2020 after that match ended in a 1-1 draw.
They have emerged victorious in five of their previous seven post-season affairs away from home, with the last one coming in Montreal in 2022.
That was the last time Nick Cushing's men won a playoff contest as the visitors, while they have lost two successive MLS away games, failing to find the back of the net on both occasions.
Saturday will be the sixth time this season that they face Cincy across all competitions, with NYCFC losing all three of their visits to TQL Stadium in 2024.
Team News
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Last weekend, Cincy were missing Nick Hagglund and Matt Miazga, both of whom are out for the year with leg injuries, while DeAndre Yedlin started despite a sore back.
Isaiah Foster suffered a knee injury earlier in the campaign and will not return this season, and neither will Alec Kann, who is recovering from a hip issue.
Luca Orellano scored his first career goal in the MLS playoffs in game two, which was set up by Luciano Acosta, who collected his 150th cap in Orange and Blue colours, becoming the second player in club history to reach that milestone after Yuya Kubo.
The Pigeons may be without Malachi Jones, who is recovering from a leg injury, while Tayvon Gray sat out of the previous encounter with a red card suspension but can return to the fold on Saturday.
Mitja Ilenic took his place at right-back for game two, while Justin Haak and Maxi Moralez came into the starting 11, replacing Birk Risa and Andres Perea.
Alonso Martinez netted his first of the 2024 playoffs last Saturday, and the other goals came from Thiago Martins and Santiago Rodriguez.
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Celentano; Awaziem, Robinson, Hadebe; Powell, Bucha, Nwobodo, Valenzuela, Acosta; Orellano, Kubo
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Freese; Ilenic, Martins, Risa, O'Toole; Parks, Sands; Wolf, Moralez, Rodriguez; Martinez
We say: FC Cincinnati 1-2 New York City FC (New York City FC wins series 2-1)
These two teams love to have the ball and attack often, and we trust the experience and creativity of the NYCFC midfield players will give them a slight edge.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
