Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 46.76%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.1%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
Result | ||
New York City FC | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
46.76% ( -0.02) | 22.82% ( 0.01) | 30.42% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 63.61% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.86% ( -0.02) | 37.14% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.66% ( -0.02) | 59.34% ( 0.02) |
New York City FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.7% ( -0.01) | 16.3% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.13% ( -0.02) | 45.87% ( 0.02) |
FC Cincinnati Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76% | 24% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.75% | 58.25% |
Score Analysis |
New York City FC | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
2-1 @ 9.19% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.1% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.44% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.55% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.96% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.89% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.52% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.8% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.77% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 3.64% Total : 46.76% | 1-1 @ 10.12% 2-2 @ 6.56% 0-0 @ 3.91% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.89% ( -0) Other @ 0.34% Total : 22.81% | 1-2 @ 7.23% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.58% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.98% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.44% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.12% 0-3 @ 1.9% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.23% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.11% Other @ 2.84% Total : 30.42% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 49 | 30 | 74 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 40 | 32 | 66 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 59 |
4 | Orlando City | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 52 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 51 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 54 | 49 | 5 | 50 |
7 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 47 |
8 | CF MontrealMontreal | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 43 |
9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 40 |
10 | DC United | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 40 |
11 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 62 | 55 | 7 | 37 |
12 | Toronto | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 37 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 36 |
14 | New England RevolutionNew England | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 31 |
15 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 30 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 64 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 64 |
3 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 59 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 57 |
5 | Houston DynamoHouston | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 54 |
6 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 52 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 50 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 65 | 56 | 9 | 47 |
9 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 47 |
10 | Austin FCAustin | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 42 |
11 | Dallas | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 54 | 56 | -2 | 41 |
12 | St Louis City | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 37 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 34 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 41 | 78 | -37 | 21 |