Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 66.06%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for CF Montreal had a probability of 15.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.38%) and 1-0 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.38%), while for a CF Montreal win it was 1-2 (4.34%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Cincinnati | Draw | CF Montreal |
66.06% ( 1.26) | 18.47% ( -0.28) | 15.46% ( -0.99) |
Both teams to score 58.18% ( -1.42) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.18% ( -0.72) | 34.82% ( 0.72) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.21% ( -0.81) | 56.79% ( 0.81) |
FC Cincinnati Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.17% ( 0.1) | 9.83% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
67.37% ( 0.24) | 32.62% ( -0.24) |
CF Montreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.52% ( -1.65) | 35.47% ( 1.64) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.76% ( -1.75) | 72.24% ( 1.74) |
Score Analysis |
FC Cincinnati | Draw | CF Montreal |
2-1 @ 9.72% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.38% ( 0.42) 1-0 @ 8.09% ( 0.33) 3-1 @ 7.52% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 7.26% ( 0.36) 4-1 @ 4.36% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 4.21% ( 0.23) 3-2 @ 3.9% ( -0.16) 4-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.08) 5-1 @ 2.02% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.95% ( 0.11) 5-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.03) Other @ 4.34% Total : 66.06% | 1-1 @ 8.38% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( -0.22) 0-0 @ 3.49% ( 0.13) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.12) Other @ 0.22% Total : 18.47% | 1-2 @ 4.34% ( -0.21) 0-1 @ 3.61% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.16) 1-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.15) Other @ 2.39% Total : 15.46% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 49 | 30 | 74 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 40 | 32 | 66 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 59 |
4 | Orlando City | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 52 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 51 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 54 | 49 | 5 | 50 |
7 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 47 |
8 | CF MontrealMontreal | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 43 |
9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 40 |
10 | DC United | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 40 |
11 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 62 | 55 | 7 | 37 |
12 | Toronto | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 37 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 36 |
14 | New England RevolutionNew England | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 31 |
15 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 30 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 64 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 64 |
3 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 59 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 57 |
5 | Houston DynamoHouston | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 54 |
6 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 52 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 50 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 65 | 56 | 9 | 47 |
9 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 47 |
10 | Austin FCAustin | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 42 |
11 | Dallas | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 54 | 56 | -2 | 41 |
12 | St Louis City | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 37 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 34 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 41 | 78 | -37 | 21 |