Europa League

Europa League | Last 16 | 2nd Leg

Mar 17, 2022 at 5.45pm UK

BayArena

B. Leverkusen
0 - 1
Atalanta

(Atalanta BC win 4-2 on aggregate)

Fosu-Mensah (56'), Diaby (90'), Andrich (90')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Boga (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Atalanta BC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

Last Six:

Last Game: B. Leverkusen 2-1 Freiburg
Saturday, May 14 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Next Game: Elversberg vs. B. Leverkusen
Friday, July 29 at 1am in DFB-Pokal

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	33	69
3	Bayer Leverkusen	34	33	64
4	RB Leipzig	34	35	58

Atalanta BC

Last Six:

Last Game: Atalanta 0-1 Empoli
Saturday, May 21 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
7	Fiorentina	38	8	62
8	Atalanta BC	38	17	59
9	Hellas Verona	38	6	53

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Atalanta BC (Atalanta win 4-3 on aggregate)

Despite a goal-laden and expansive first leg, neither side managed to score at all upon their return to domestic duty at the weekend, and Leverkusen may find Wirtz's absence as disruptive as Zapata's has been for Atalanta. The Bergamaschi may be more miss than hit of late, but they are generally a force to be reckoned with away from home, so they can hang on for a draw to squeeze through to the last eight at their hosts' expense. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 43.89%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 32.2% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.94%) and 0-2 (6.56%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result
Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Atalanta BC
32.2%	23.91%	43.89%

Both teams to score 60.56%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.46%

41.54%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.06%

63.94%

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.93%

25.07%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.25%

59.75%

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.82%

19.18%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.15%

50.85%

Score Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen 32.2%

Atalanta BC 43.89%

Draw 23.91%

Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Atalanta BC
2-1 @ 7.6% 1-0 @ 6.65% 2-0 @ 4.6% 3-1 @ 3.51% 3-2 @ 2.89% 3-0 @ 2.12% 4-1 @ 1.21% 4-2 @ 1% Other @ 2.62% Total : 32.2%	1-1 @ 10.98% 2-2 @ 6.28% 0-0 @ 4.81% 3-3 @ 1.59% Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.91%	1-2 @ 9.07% 0-1 @ 7.94% 0-2 @ 6.56% 1-3 @ 4.99% 0-3 @ 3.61% 2-3 @ 3.45% 1-4 @ 2.06% 0-4 @ 1.49% 2-4 @ 1.43% Other @ 3.29% Total : 43.89%