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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Rotterdam win with a probability of 37.82%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 35.72% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Rotterdam win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-0 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sparta Rotterdam would win this match.
Result | ||
SBV Excelsior | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
35.72% ( -0.04) | 26.46% ( 0.02) | 37.82% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 52.64% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.82% ( -0.07) | 52.18% ( 0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.11% ( -0.06) | 73.89% ( 0.06) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.94% ( -0.05) | 28.05% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.29% ( -0.07) | 63.71% ( 0.08) |
Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.17% ( -0.02) | 26.83% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.87% ( -0.02) | 62.13% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
SBV Excelsior | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
1-0 @ 9.57% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.08% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.39% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.58% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.8% Total : 35.72% | 1-1 @ 12.58% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.53% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.26% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.46% | 0-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.28% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.51% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.63% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.86% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.31% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.19% ( -0) 0-4 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 2.19% Total : 37.82% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
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