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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 58.98%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 18.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.05%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.86%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 0-1 (6.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.
Result | ||
Groningen | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
58.98% ( 0.04) | 22.87% ( -0.02) | 18.15% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 49.01% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.26% ( 0.08) | 49.74% ( -0.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.25% ( 0.07) | 71.75% ( -0.07) |
Groningen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.46% ( 0.04) | 16.53% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.71% ( 0.07) | 46.29% ( -0.07) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.72% ( 0.03) | 41.28% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.19% ( 0.03) | 77.8% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Groningen | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
1-0 @ 12.28% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 11.05% 2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.63% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.87% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.64% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.6% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.07% ( 0) 5-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.95% Total : 58.97% | 1-1 @ 10.86% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.82% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.33% ( 0) Other @ 0.85% Total : 22.86% | 0-1 @ 6.04% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.81% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.67% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.42% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.28% ( 0) Other @ 1.94% Total : 18.15% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 9 | 28 | 30 |
2 | Ajax | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 25 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 25 |
4 | Feyenoord | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 22 |
5 | FC Twente | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 21 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 17 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 15 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 15 |
10 | NECNijmegen | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 13 |
11 | Willem II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
12 | Heracles | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 12 |
13 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
14 | Heerenveen | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 11 |
15 | Groningen | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 9 |
16 | PEC Zwolle | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 28 | -18 | 4 |
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