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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 53.34%. A win for Groningen had a probability of 23.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Groningen win was 0-1 (6.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.
Result | ||
Heerenveen | Draw | Groningen |
53.34% ( -0.25) | 23.19% ( 0.05) | 23.46% ( 0.2) |
Both teams to score 55.95% ( 0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.54% ( -0.04) | 44.45% ( 0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.17% ( -0.03) | 66.82% ( 0.03) |
Heerenveen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.37% ( -0.1) | 16.62% ( 0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.54% ( -0.18) | 46.45% ( 0.18) |
Groningen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.11% ( 0.15) | 32.89% ( -0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.53% ( 0.17) | 69.46% ( -0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Heerenveen | Draw | Groningen |
1-0 @ 9.81% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.8% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.85% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 5.26% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.26% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.63% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.36% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.18% Total : 53.34% | 1-1 @ 10.91% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.47% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.19% | 0-1 @ 6.08% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.07% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.38% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.25% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.42% Total : 23.46% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 9 | 28 | 30 |
2 | Ajax | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 25 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 25 |
4 | Feyenoord | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 22 |
5 | FC Twente | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 21 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 17 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 15 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 15 |
10 | NECNijmegen | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 13 |
11 | Willem II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
12 | Heracles | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 12 |
13 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
14 | Heerenveen | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 11 |
15 | Groningen | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 9 |
16 | PEC Zwolle | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 28 | -18 | 4 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |