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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 58.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 19.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.69%) and 0-2 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.11%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 2-1 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
Fortuna Sittard | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
19.6% ( -0.07) | 21.58% ( -0.05) | 58.81% ( 0.13) |
Both teams to score 55.71% ( 0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.9% ( 0.11) | 42.1% ( -0.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.49% ( 0.11) | 64.5% ( -0.11) |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.78% ( -0.01) | 35.22% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.02% ( -0.01) | 71.97% ( 0.02) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86% ( 0.08) | 14% ( -0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.47% ( 0.15) | 41.52% ( -0.14) |
Score Analysis |
Fortuna Sittard | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
2-1 @ 5.28% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 5.15% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 2.68% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 1.84% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.81% ( -0) 3-0 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 1.92% Total : 19.6% | 1-1 @ 10.11% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.19% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.93% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.18% ( 0) Other @ 0.17% Total : 21.58% | 1-2 @ 9.95% ( 0) 0-1 @ 9.69% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 9.53% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 6.52% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 6.25% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 3.4% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 3.2% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 3.07% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.67% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) 0-5 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.06% Total : 58.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 13 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 45 | 9 | 36 | 36 |
2 | Feyenoord | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 28 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
4 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
5 | FC Twente | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 25 |
6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
7 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 17 |
9 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
10 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 14 |
13 | Heracles | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 13 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Groningen | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 30 | -24 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 5 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |