UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg

Mar 16, 2023 at 8pm UK

AFAS Stadion

AZ
2 - 1
Lazio

(AZ Alkmaar win 4-2 on aggregate)

Karlsson (28'), Pavlidis (62')
Milos (2')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Anderson (21')
Vecino (42'), Pellegrini (47')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between AZ Alkmaar and Lazio, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: AZ 1-0 Groningen
Saturday, March 11 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lazio

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Bologna 0-0 Lazio
Saturday, March 11 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

AZ are unblemished on their turf in Europe, and that run of victories is likely to continue against a Lazio side expected to be without the sidelined Immobile. Sarri's men have struggled for goals on their travels on the continent all season, making the Dutch side the likelier winner on the night and on aggregate. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 51.79%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 23.71%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (7.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Lazio
51.79% ( -0.01)	24.5%	23.71% ( 0)

Both teams to score 52.02% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.2% (

-0)

49.8% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.2% (

-0)

71.8% (

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.79% (

-0.01)

19.21% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.1% (

-0.01)

50.9% (

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.38%

35.61% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.62% (

72.38% (

-0)

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 51.78%

Lazio 23.71%

Draw 24.5%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Lazio
1-0 @ 11.28% 2-1 @ 9.61% 2-0 @ 9.31% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.29% ( -0) 3-0 @ 5.12% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.73% 4-1 @ 2.18% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.11% 4-2 @ 1.13% ( -0) Other @ 3.03% Total : 51.78%	1-1 @ 11.65% 0-0 @ 6.84% 2-2 @ 4.96% 3-3 @ 0.94% Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.5%	0-1 @ 7.06% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.02% 0-2 @ 3.65% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.07% 2-3 @ 1.71% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.26% ( 0) Other @ 1.95% Total : 23.71%