UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Mar 7, 2023 at 5.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Lazio
1 - 2
AZ

(AZ Alkmaar win 4-2 on aggregate)

Pedro (18')
Lasicki (90+2')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Pavlidis (45'), Milos (62')
Clasie (72'), Milos (74')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Europa Conference League clash between Lazio and AZ Alkmaar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lazio

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Napoli 0-1 Lazio
Friday, March 3 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Vitesse 0-1 AZ
Friday, March 3 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

AZ will be aware of the size of the challenge facing them in this tie, and while we are expecting it to be close overall, Lazio are likely to have too much for their opponents in the first leg of their encounter. As a result, we are backing a 2-0 success for Sarri's team on Tuesday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 (8.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.

Result
Lazio	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
41.85% ( -0.07)	26.05% ( 0.1)	32.1% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 53.2% (

-0.33)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.89% (

-0.42)

51.11% (

0.42)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.04% (

-0.37)

72.96% (

0.37)

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.81% (

-0.22)

24.19% (

0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.48% (

-0.31)

58.52% (

0.31)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.17% (

-0.23)

29.83% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.09% (

-0.28)

65.91% (

0.28)

Score Analysis

Lazio 41.84%

AZ Alkmaar 32.1%

Draw 26.04%

Lazio	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
1-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 8.79% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.27% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.16% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.44% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.48% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.22% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.74% Total : 41.84%	1-1 @ 12.38% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 7.21% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 5.32% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.04%	0-1 @ 8.73% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 7.49% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 3.02% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.13% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.39% Total : 32.1%