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Atalanta logo
Coppa Italia | Round of 16
Jan 19, 2023 at 2pm UK
Gewiss Stadium
Spezia Calcio logo

Atalanta
5 - 2
Spezia

Lookman (10', 12'), Hateboer (26'), Hojlund (72'), Ampadu (90' og.)
Ederson (5')
FT(HT: 3-2)
Ekdal (14'), Verde (38')
Hristov (66'), Ampadu (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Coppa Italia clash between Atalanta BC and Spezia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atalanta BC

All competitions
Last Game: Atalanta 8-2 Salernitana
Sunday, January 15 at 5pm in Serie A

Spezia

All competitions
Coppa Italia
Last Game: Torino 0-1 Spezia
Sunday, January 15 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: Atalanta BC 2-0 Spezia

 As Atalanta's squad depth is more substantial than their visitors', even if Gian Piero Gasperini overhauls his side for the cup, they can still make it through to the last eight. Setting up a quarter-final tie with regional rivals Inter, the Bergamaschi are sure to score at least once past opponents who are not the most secure in defence. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 58.73%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 20.32%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.71%) and 1-0 (8.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-2 (5.43%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result
Atalanta BCDrawSpezia
58.73% (0.0060000000000002 0.01) 20.95%20.32% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
Both teams to score 59.16% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.88% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)38.12% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.61% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)60.39% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Atalanta BC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.26% (0.0010000000000048 0)12.74% (0.00099999999999945 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.01% (0.0010000000000048 0)38.99%
Spezia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.79% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)32.21% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.31% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)68.7% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Atalanta BC 58.73%
    Spezia 20.32%
    Draw 20.95%
Atalanta BCDrawSpezia
2-1 @ 9.87%
2-0 @ 8.71% (0.0019999999999989 0)
1-0 @ 8.45% (0.0019999999999989 0)
3-1 @ 6.78%
3-0 @ 5.98% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 3.84%
4-1 @ 3.49%
4-0 @ 3.08% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.98%
5-1 @ 1.44%
5-0 @ 1.27%
Other @ 3.84%
Total : 58.73%
1-1 @ 9.58% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-2 @ 5.59% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-0 @ 4.1% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1.45% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 20.95%
1-2 @ 5.43% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-1 @ 4.65%
0-2 @ 2.63% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 2.11% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-3 @ 2.05% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 1%
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 20.32%

How you voted: Atalanta vs Spezia

Atalanta BC
87.9%
Draw
7.1%
Spezia
5.1%
99
Head to Head
Jan 4, 2023 1.30pm
Spezia
2-2
Atalanta
Gyasi (8'), N'Zola (31')
Hojlund (77'), Pasalic (90+2')
Lookman (45+7')
May 8, 2022 11.30am
Spezia
1-3
Atalanta
Verde (30')
Bastoni (41'), Maggiore (44')
Muriel (16'), Djimsiti (73'), Pasalic (87')
Malinovskyi (53'), Freuler (57'), Muriel (62')
Nov 20, 2021 2pm
Atalanta
5-2
Spezia
Pasalic (18', 41'), Zapata (38' pen.), Muriel (83'), Malinovskyi (89')
Koopmeiners (10'), Pasalic (71')
N'Zola (11', 90+1')
Gyasi (5'), Sala (36'), Hristov (49')
Mar 12, 2021 7.45pm
Atalanta
3-1
Spezia
Pasalic (54', 73'), Muriel (55')
Toloi (8'), de Roon (25')
Piccoli (82')
Nov 21, 2020 5pm
Spezia
0-0
Atalanta

Ricci (3'), Estevez (28'), Terzi (65')

Gosens (38'), Pasalic (52'), Pessina (85')
rhs 2.0
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