Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 13

Nov 5, 2022 at 5pm UK

Gewiss Stadium

Atalanta
1 - 2
Napoli

Lookman (19' pen.)
Demiral (36'), Hojlund (58'), Maehle (90+2'), Toloi (90+3'), Zapata (90+4')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Osimhen (23'), Elmas (35')
Min-jae (57')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Atalanta BC and Napoli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atalanta BC

All competitions

Last Game: Empoli 0-2 Atalanta
Sunday, October 30 at 11.30am in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Napoli

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Liverpool 2-0 Napoli
Tuesday, November 1 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atalanta BC 1-2 Napoli

Atalanta have found the net in each of their last eight league games against Napoli - and Bologna, Ajax, and now Liverpool have each scored twice against the Serie A leaders over the past few weeks. However, the Azzurri's formidable firepower at the other end means they can breach their hosts' mean defence more than once and secure a ninth straight league win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 45.14%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.94%) and 0-2 (7.2%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 2-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Napoli in this match.

Result
Atalanta BC	Draw	Napoli
30.42% ( 0.53)	24.44% ( 0.21)	45.14% ( -0.74)

Both teams to score 57.79% (

-0.42)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.2% (

-0.69)

44.8% (

0.7)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.84% (

-0.67)

67.15% (

0.68)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.21% (

0.01)

27.79% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.62% (

0.01)

63.38% (

-0)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.03% (

-0.59)

19.97% (

0.6)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.86% (

-0.96)

52.14% (

0.97)

Score Analysis

Atalanta BC 30.42%

Napoli 45.14%

Draw 24.44%

Atalanta BC	Draw	Napoli
2-1 @ 7.33% ( 0.09) 1-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.21) 2-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 3.13% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 1% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.85% Total : 30.42%	1-1 @ 11.44% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.55% ( 0.17) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.44%	1-2 @ 9.22% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 8.94% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 7.2% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 4.95% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 3.87% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 3.17% ( -0.08) 1-4 @ 1.99% ( -0.09) 0-4 @ 1.56% ( -0.07) 2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.95% Total : 45.14%