Copa do Brasil | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Jul 26, 2023 at 1.30am UK

Arena Corinthians

Corinthians
2 - 1
Sao Paulo

(Sao Paulo win 3-2 on aggregate)

Augusto (48', 81')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Ramos (55' og.)
Maia (44'), Luciano (57'), Beraldo (88')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa do Brasil Semi-Finals clash between Corinthians and Sao Paulo.

Form, Standings, Stats

Corinthians

All competitions

Copa do Brasil

Last Game: Bahia 0-0 Corinthians
Saturday, July 22 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Sao Paulo

All competitions

Copa do Brasil

Last Game: Cuiaba 2-1 Sao Paulo
Saturday, July 22 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 37.84%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 34.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.01%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (10.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.

Result
Corinthians	Draw	Sao Paulo
37.84% ( -1.34)	27.83% ( 0.39)	34.33% ( 0.95)

Both teams to score 48.21% (

-1.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.31% (

-1.35)

57.69% (

1.36)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.56% (

-1.08)

78.45% (

1.08)

Corinthians Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.54% (

-1.43)

29.46% (

1.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.54% (

-1.79)

65.46% (

1.79)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.35% (

-0.05)

31.66% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.93% (

-0.06)

68.07% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Corinthians 37.83%

Sao Paulo 34.33%

Draw 27.83%

Corinthians	Draw	Sao Paulo
1-0 @ 11.39% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 8.01% ( -0.24) 2-0 @ 6.97% ( -0.2) 3-1 @ 3.26% ( -0.24) 3-0 @ 2.84% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 1.88% ( -0.14) 4-1 @ 1% ( -0.12) Other @ 2.49% Total : 37.83%	1-1 @ 13.11% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 9.33% ( 0.47) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.15) Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.83%	0-1 @ 10.72% ( 0.52) 1-2 @ 7.54% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 6.17% ( 0.29) 1-3 @ 2.89% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.87% Total : 34.33%