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Athletic Bilbao logo
Copa del Rey | Semi-Finals | 2nd Leg
Feb 29, 2024 at 8.30pm UK
San Mames Barria
Atletico Madrid logo

Athletic Bilbao
3 - 0
Atletico

Williams (13'), Williams (42'), Guruzeta (61')
Ruiz de Galarreta (40'), Muniain (45+3'), Lekue (66'), de Marcos (74')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Hermoso (28')

The Match

Match Report

Athletic Bilbao book their spot in the final of the Copa del Rey against Mallorca courtesy of a 4-0 aggregate success over Atletico Madrid.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa del Rey clash between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 45.79%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 28.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (7.97%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
Athletic BilbaoDrawAtletico Madrid
45.79% (0.281 0.28) 25.41% (0.16 0.16) 28.8% (-0.438 -0.44)
Both teams to score 53.59% (-0.793 -0.79)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.15% (-0.907 -0.91)49.85% (0.907 0.91)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.15% (-0.815 -0.82)71.84% (0.81699999999999 0.82)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.23% (-0.252 -0.25)21.77% (0.254 0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.04% (-0.387 -0.39)54.95% (0.389 0.39)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.5% (-0.788 -0.79)31.5% (0.79 0.79)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.12% (-0.918 -0.92)67.88% (0.92 0.92)
Score Analysis
    Athletic Bilbao 45.78%
    Atletico Madrid 28.8%
    Draw 25.41%
Athletic BilbaoDrawAtletico Madrid
1-0 @ 10.45% (0.31 0.31)
2-1 @ 9.21% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 7.97% (0.172 0.17)
3-1 @ 4.68% (-0.036 -0.04)
3-0 @ 4.05% (0.057 0.06)
3-2 @ 2.7% (-0.08 -0.08)
4-1 @ 1.78% (-0.028 -0.03)
4-0 @ 1.54% (0.01 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.03% (-0.038 -0.04)
Other @ 2.36%
Total : 45.78%
1-1 @ 12.07% (0.09 0.09)
0-0 @ 6.85% (0.249 0.25)
2-2 @ 5.32% (-0.117 -0.12)
3-3 @ 1.04% (-0.055 -0.06)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 25.41%
0-1 @ 7.92% (0.12 0.12)
1-2 @ 6.98% (-0.099 -0.1)
0-2 @ 4.58% (-0.029 -0.03)
1-3 @ 2.69% (-0.098 -0.1)
2-3 @ 2.05% (-0.091 -0.09)
0-3 @ 1.76% (-0.05 -0.05)
Other @ 2.83%
Total : 28.8%

How you voted: Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico

Athletic Bilbao
49.5%
Draw
16.0%
Atletico Madrid
34.5%
287
Head to Head
Feb 7, 2024 8.30pm
Semi-Finals 1st Leg
Atletico
0-1
Athletic Bilbao

Mandava (23'), Simeone (24'), Simeone (65'), De Paul (83')
Berenguer (25' pen.)
Prados (37'), Vivian (45+2'), Gomez (71'), Ruiz de Galarreta (90+7')
Dec 16, 2023 3.15pm
Feb 19, 2023 5.30pm
Oct 15, 2022 8pm
Apr 30, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 34
Athletic Bilbao
2-0
Atletico
Hermoso (8' og.), Williams (56' pen.)
Garcia (25'), Williams (68'), Berenguer (90+1')

Hermoso (1'), Mandava (18'), Lodi (71')
rhs 2.0
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