Championship

Championship | Gameweek 9

Sep 30, 2023 at 12.30pm UK

St. Mary's Stadium

Southampton
3 - 1
Leeds

Armstrong (2', 35'), Smallbone (31')
Armstrong (12'), Smallbone (18'), Bednarek (37'), Charles (76')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Struijk (58')
Kamara (33')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Southampton and Leeds United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions

Last Game: Middlesbrough 2-1 Southampton
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Leeds United

All competitions

Championship

Last Game: Leeds 3-0 Watford
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Southampton 0-2 Leeds United

Southampton are yet to fully hit their stride under Russell Martin, and pressure is certainly growing around St Mary's, while their visitors are quickly building momentum and appear to be more proficient at both ends of the pitch than the Saints. We fancy Farke's side to put up another clean sheet and return to Yorkshire with three more points on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 47.14%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 29.47% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.99%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Southampton win was 2-1 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.

Result
Southampton	Draw	Leeds United
29.47% ( -2.68)	23.39% ( 0.22)	47.14% ( 2.46)

Both teams to score 60.9% (

-2.35)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.55% (

-2.45)

40.45% (

2.45)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.17% (

-2.56)

62.82% (

2.56)

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.75% (

-2.85)

26.24% (

2.85)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.64% (

-3.97)

61.35% (

3.97)

Leeds United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.57% (

17.43% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.12% (

0.01)

47.88% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Southampton 29.47%

Leeds United 47.14%

Draw 23.39%

Southampton	Draw	Leeds United
2-1 @ 7.15% ( -0.37) 1-0 @ 6.12% ( 0.19) 2-0 @ 4.09% ( -0.21) 3-1 @ 3.19% ( -0.45) 3-2 @ 2.79% ( -0.39) 3-0 @ 1.83% ( -0.26) 4-1 @ 1.07% ( -0.26) 4-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.22) Other @ 2.31% Total : 29.47%	1-1 @ 10.69% ( 0.35) 2-2 @ 6.25% ( -0.32) 0-0 @ 4.57% ( 0.5) 3-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.23) Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.39%	1-2 @ 9.34% ( 0.3) 0-1 @ 7.99% ( 0.87) 0-2 @ 6.98% ( 0.76) 1-3 @ 5.44% ( 0.18) 0-3 @ 4.07% ( 0.44) 2-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.19) 1-4 @ 2.38% ( 0.08) 0-4 @ 1.78% ( 0.19) 2-4 @ 1.59% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.95% Total : 47.14%