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Southampton logo
Premier League | Gameweek 8
Oct 16, 2021 at 3pm UK
St Mary's Stadium
Leeds logo

Southampton
1 - 0
Leeds

Broja (53')
Bednarek (75'), McCarthy (83')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Roberts (47'), Struijk (58'), Llorente (70')

Preview: Southampton vs. Leeds United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Southampton and Leeds United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Leeds United will be looking to make it back-to-back wins in the Premier League when they head to St Mary's on Saturday afternoon to take on Southampton.

The Whites are currently 16th in the table, having picked up six points from their opening seven matches, while Southampton occupy 17th, two points behind their opponents in this game.


Match preview

Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhuttl pictured on September 11, 2021© Reuters

Southampton are still waiting for their first victory of the 2021-22 Premier League season, but that does not tell the whole story, with the Saints putting in some impressive performances this term.

A record of four draws and three defeats from seven matches has seen Ralph Hasenhuttl's side collect four points, holding Manchester United, Newcastle United, West Ham United and Manchester City, but they have lost their last two against Wolverhampton Wanderers and Chelsea.

Southampton's position of 17th is far from ideal, but there is a lot of football to be played this season, and Hasenhuttl will have been encouraged by certain aspects of his team's early-season performances.

The Saints have actually lost their last three games against Leeds in all competitions, though, including both Premier League meetings between the two teams last term, and they have not overcome the Whites on home soil since August 2011 in the second tier of English football.

The Hampshire-based side will view their next two matches against Leeds and Burnley as the perfect chance to put some points on the board, while they will then end the month with a clash against Watford.

Leeds United's Kalvin Phillips celebrates after the match against Watford on October 2, 2021© Reuters

Leeds, meanwhile, finally picked up their first Premier League win of the season before the international break, with Diego Llorente's first-half effort seeing them record a 1-0 victory over Watford at Elland Road.

The Whites have won one, drawn three and lost three of their first seven matches of the campaign to collect six points, which has left them in 16th position in the table ahead of the next set of fixtures.

It is not quite the start that Leeds would have had in mind considering their success last term, but they now have a run of winnable matches, facing Southampton, Wolves and Norwich City in their next three.

Marcelo Bielsa's side scored five unanswered goals against the Saints in their two Premier League matches last term, including a 2-0 victory at St Mary's, where Patrick Bamford and Tyler Roberts were on the scoresheet.

Leeds won 10 away games in the Premier League last term, meanwhile, and will certainly believe that their free-flowing football can cause Southampton problems once again, but there has also been a lot of space for teams to operate in against the Whites this term, suggesting that this should be an entertaining contest.

Southampton Premier League form:
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L

Southampton form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L

Leeds United Premier League form:
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W

Leeds United form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W



Team News

Leeds United attacker Raphinha pictured on July 31, 2021© Reuters

Southampton boss Hasenhuttl has revealed that Che Adams will be absent this weekend due to the muscular problem that the forward picked up while representing Scotland over the international break.

Jack Stephens also remains sidelined with a knee injury, while James Ward-Prowse will miss out through suspension, which should see Ibrahima Diallo feature in the middle of the park.

Nathan Redmond is again expected to start through the middle alongside Adam Armstrong, but there could be a change in a wide area, with Nathan Tella potentially being replaced by Mohamed Elyounoussi.

As for Leeds, Bielsa has admitted that Raphinha is a major doubt due to his expected involvement for Brazil against Uruguay, while Bamford has again been ruled out with an ankle problem.

Kalvin Phillips should be available despite a calf issue, while Adam Forshaw and Crysencio Summerville are fit, but Robin Koch and Luke Ayling remain on the sidelines for the Whites.

Rodrigo is again expected to lead the line for Bielsa's team, while Jack Harrison is in line to feature in a wide area if Raphinha is not risked from the start at St Mary's.

There had also been a slight concern over the availability of Stuart Dallas, but the midfielder has been passed fit and will feature for the visitors on Saturday afternoon.

Southampton possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Livramento, Bednarek, Salisu, Walker-Peters; Walcott, Romeu, Diallo, Elyounoussi; Armstrong, Redmond

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Shackleton, Llorente, Cooper, Firpo; Phillips; James, Dallas, Klich, Harrison; Rodrigo


SM words green background

We say: Southampton 2-2 Leeds United

This has all of the makings of a very open game of football, and we are predicting goals on Saturday. Southampton will be desperate to record their first league win of the campaign, but we cannot see the Saints overcoming Leeds, who put a very important three points on the board before the international break.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 41.33%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 30.51% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.28%) and 0-2 (7.96%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-0 (10.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Southampton vs Leeds

Southampton
34.4%
Draw
31.6%
Leeds United
34.0%
209
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Patrick Bamford pictured for Leeds United on August 21, 2021
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2Leeds UnitedLeeds137512281426
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd138321661025
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5Watford137152221122
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom13562148621
7Millwall135441612419
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn135441614219
9Bristol City134721717019
10Norwich CityNorwich134632318518
11Middlesbrough135351415-118
12Swansea CitySwansea13445109116
13Coventry CityCoventry134361717015
14Derby CountyDerby134361617-115
15Hull City133641517-215
16Stoke CityStoke134361518-315
17Cardiff CityCardiff134361319-615
18Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds134361524-915
19Oxford UnitedOxford Utd133551617-114
20Preston North EndPreston133551420-614
21Luton TownLuton133371521-612
22Plymouth ArgylePlymouth133371325-1212
23Queens Park RangersQPR131751119-810
24Portsmouth131661326-139


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