Champions League

Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Feb 20, 2024 at 8pm UK

Philips Stadion

PSV
1 - 1
Dortmund

(Borussia Dortmund win 3-1 on aggregate)

de Jong (56' pen.)
Lozano (22')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Malen (24')
Maatsen (42'), Schlotterbeck (45+1')

The Match

Match Report

PSV Eindhoven fight back to draw 1-1 with Borussia Dortmund in their Champions League last-16 first leg thanks to a controversial Luuk de Jong penalty.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between PSV Eindhoven and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

PSV Eindhoven

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: PSV 2-0 Heracles
Friday, February 16 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Wolfsburg 1-1 Dortmund
Saturday, February 17 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 55.69%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 24.32% and a draw had a probability of 20%.

The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.82%) and 2-0 (6.19%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (5.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.

Result
PSV Eindhoven	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
55.69% ( -1.28)	19.98% ( 0.45)	24.32% ( 0.83)

Both teams to score 68.78% (

-0.69)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

71.83% (

-1.29)

28.16% (

1.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

51.05% (

-1.62)

48.94% (

1.62)

PSV Eindhoven Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.6% (

-0.72)

10.4% (

0.72)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.06% (

-1.66)

33.94% (

1.66)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.76% (

-0.15)

23.24% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.84% (

-0.22)

57.15% (

0.22)

Score Analysis

PSV Eindhoven 55.69%

Borussia Dortmund 24.32%

Draw 19.98%

PSV Eindhoven	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 6.82% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 6.19% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 5.47% ( 0.25) 3-2 @ 4.97% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 4.67% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 3.86% ( -0.2) 4-2 @ 2.81% ( -0.16) 4-0 @ 2.64% ( -0.13) 5-1 @ 1.75% ( -0.15) 4-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.09) 5-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.12) 5-0 @ 1.2% ( -0.1) Other @ 3.64% Total : 55.69%	1-1 @ 7.98% ( 0.34) 2-2 @ 6.59% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 2.42% ( 0.18) Other @ 0.57% Total : 19.98%	1-2 @ 5.83% ( 0.22) 0-1 @ 3.53% ( 0.25) 2-3 @ 3.21% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.17) 0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.08) 2-4 @ 1.17% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.03% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.9% Total : 24.32%