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Bundesliga | Gameweek 21
Feb 9, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
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Dortmund
3 - 0
Freiburg

Malen (16', 45+7'), Fullkrug (87')
Ryerson (14'), Malen (73')
FT(HT: 2-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Freiburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Heidenheim 0-0 Dortmund
Friday, February 2 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Freiburg

All competitions
Last Game: Freiburg 1-3 Stuttgart
Saturday, February 3 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Freiburg

 In what should be a competitive encounter, Dortmund may be made to work for their three points on home soil, especially in the midst of an injury and illness crisis. Freiburg have not yet reached the levels they had shown in 2023 though, and are currently stuck in a poor run of form which is likely to continue here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 58.12%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 21.24% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.02%) and 1-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 1-2 (5.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawFreiburg
58.12% (1.01 1.01) 20.64% (-0.067 -0.07) 21.24% (-0.937 -0.94)
Both teams to score 61.83% (-1.195 -1.2)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.69% (-0.937 -0.94)35.31% (0.942 0.94)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.67% (-1.05 -1.05)57.33% (1.055 1.06)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.98% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)12.02% (0.019 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.52% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)37.48% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.27% (-1.344 -1.34)29.73% (1.35 1.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.21% (-1.665 -1.67)65.79% (1.669 1.67)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 58.12%
    Freiburg 21.24%
    Draw 20.64%
Borussia DortmundDrawFreiburg
2-1 @ 9.73% (0.087 0.09)
2-0 @ 8.02% (0.365 0.37)
1-0 @ 7.57% (0.349 0.35)
3-1 @ 6.87% (0.057 0.06)
3-0 @ 5.66% (0.254 0.25)
3-2 @ 4.17% (-0.124 -0.12)
4-1 @ 3.64% (0.027 0.03)
4-0 @ 3% (0.132 0.13)
4-2 @ 2.21% (-0.068 -0.07)
5-1 @ 1.54% (0.01 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.27% (0.055 0.05)
5-2 @ 0.94% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 3.51%
Total : 58.12%
1-1 @ 9.18% (0.088000000000001 0.09)
2-2 @ 5.9% (-0.171 -0.17)
0-0 @ 3.57% (0.167 0.17)
3-3 @ 1.69% (-0.117 -0.12)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 20.64%
1-2 @ 5.57% (-0.157 -0.16)
0-1 @ 4.33% (0.045 0.04)
0-2 @ 2.63% (-0.072 -0.07)
2-3 @ 2.39% (-0.163 -0.16)
1-3 @ 2.25% (-0.153 -0.15)
0-3 @ 1.06% (-0.071 -0.07)
Other @ 3%
Total : 21.24%

How you voted: Dortmund vs Freiburg

Borussia Dortmund
88.6%
Draw
8.4%
Freiburg
3.0%
166
Head to Head
Sep 16, 2023 2.30pm
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2-4
Dortmund
Holer (45+2'), Hofler (45+6')
Lienhart (87'), Eggestein (89')
Hofler (82')
Hummels (11', 88'), Malen (60'), Reus (90+2')
Bensebaini (45+4'), Wolf (68'), Can (78')
> Preview
Feb 4, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 19
Dortmund
5-1
Freiburg
Schlotterbeck (26'), Adeyemi (48'), Haller (51'), Brandt (69'), Reyna (82')
Holer (45')
> Preview
Aug 12, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 2
Freiburg
1-3
Dortmund
Gregoritsch (35')
Kyereh (86')
Bynoe-Gittens (77'), Moukoko (84'), Wolf (88')
Meunier (33'), Bellingham (60'), Schlotterbeck (67')
> Preview
Jan 14, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 19
Dortmund
5-1
Freiburg
Meunier (14', 29'), Braut Haaland (45+1', 75'), Dahoud (86')
Brandt (76'), Braut Haaland (88')
Demirovic (61')
> Preview
Aug 21, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 2
Freiburg
2-1
Dortmund
Grifo (6'), Sallai (53')
Demirovic (86')
Keitel (59' og.)
Malen (19'), Dahoud (34'), Akanji (61'), Guerreiro (76')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern14103142123033
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1485132201229
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1483334201427
4RB Leipzig148332315827
5Freiburg147342019124
6Stuttgart146532924523
7Mainz 05Mainz146442519622
8Borussia DortmundDortmund146442521422
9Werder Bremen146442224-222
10Wolfsburg146353125621
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach146352319421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin144551315-217
13Augsburg144461627-1116
14Hoffenheim143561926-714
15St Pauli143291119-811
16Heidenheim1431101831-1310
17Holstein Kiel1412111437-235
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1403111135-243
> Bundesliga Full Table


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