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Bundesliga | Gameweek 18
Jan 20, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Schwarzwald-Stadion
Hoffenheim logo

Freiburg
3 - 2
Hoffenheim

Holer (37'), Grifo (55'), Sallai (85')
Gulde (43'), Grifo (56')
Gulde (82')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Weghorst (57'), Beier (77')
Kaderabek (8'), Kabak (31'), Philipp (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Hoffenheim, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Freiburg

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 0-0 Union Berlin
Saturday, January 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Hoffenheim

All competitions
Last Game: Bayern 3-0 Hoffenheim
Friday, January 12 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Freiburg 2-1 Hoffenheim

 A closely-fought contest between two evenly-matched teams vying for European qualification could be on the cards this weekend, but Freiburg will boast the psychological edge considering their recent record in this fixture. Hoffenheim certainly have the firepower to cause problems in the final third, but we believe that Freiburg will find a way to come out on top in front of their own supporters to complete the double over their Sinsheim-based counterparts. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 64.21%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 16.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.74%) and 1-0 (7.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.4%), while for a Hoffenheim win it was 1-2 (4.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.

Result
FreiburgDrawHoffenheim
64.21% (0.013000000000005 0.01) 18.85% (-0.0039999999999978 -0) 16.94% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
Both teams to score 60.33% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.34% (0.012999999999991 0.01)33.66% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.53% (0.015000000000001 0.02)55.48% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.05% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)9.95% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.09% (0.013999999999996 0.01)32.91% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Hoffenheim Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67% (0.0010000000000048 0)33% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.41% (0.0010000000000012 0)69.59% (0.0020000000000095 0)
Score Analysis
    Freiburg 64.21%
    Hoffenheim 16.94%
    Draw 18.85%
FreiburgDrawHoffenheim
2-1 @ 9.69% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 8.74%
1-0 @ 7.58% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 7.46% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-0 @ 6.73% (0.00099999999999945 0)
4-1 @ 4.3% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 4.13% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-0 @ 3.88% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-2 @ 2.39% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-1 @ 1.99% (0.0010000000000001 0)
5-0 @ 1.79% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-2 @ 1.1% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 4.44%
Total : 64.21%
1-1 @ 8.4% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-2 @ 5.37%
0-0 @ 3.28% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-3 @ 1.53%
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 18.85%
1-2 @ 4.66% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-1 @ 3.64% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
0-2 @ 2.02% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-3 @ 1.99%
1-3 @ 1.72%
Other @ 2.92%
Total : 16.94%

How you voted: Freiburg vs Hoffenheim

Freiburg
88.5%
Draw
0.0%
Hoffenheim
11.5%
26
Head to Head
Aug 19, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 1
Hoffenheim
1-2
Freiburg
Kabak (50')
Szalai (39' og.), Sallai (45+3')
Lienhart (15')
> Preview
Mar 12, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 24
Freiburg
2-1
Hoffenheim
Eggestein (5'), Doan (89')
Stiller (48')
> Preview
Sep 18, 2022 6.30pm
Gameweek 7
Hoffenheim
0-0
Freiburg
> Preview
Apr 30, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 32
Hoffenheim
3-4
Freiburg
Kramaric (32'), Stiller (49'), Rudy (84')
Samassekou (45')
Sallai (23'), Gunter (50'), Holer (70'), Woo-yeong (73')
> Preview
Jan 19, 2022 7.45pm
Last 16
Hoffenheim
1-4
Freiburg
Schlotterbeck (53' og.)
Richards (32'), Geiger (79')
Grifo (10', 35'), Schade (55'), Demirovic (68')
Schade (27')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
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32-41
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern129303782930
2Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1282231161526
3Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen126512819923
4RB Leipzig126331914521
5Borussia DortmundDortmund126242319420
6Freiburg126241616020
7Mainz 05Mainz125432014619
8Wolfsburg125342519618
9Stuttgart124532321217
10Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach125251817117
11Union BerlinUnion Berlin124441011-116
12Werder Bremen124441924-516
13Augsburg124351423-915
14Hoffenheim123361724-712
15St Pauli123271015-511
16Heidenheim123181524-910
17Holstein Kiel121291331-185
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1202101033-232
> Bundesliga Full Table


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