Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 18

Jan 20, 2024 at 2.30pm UK

RheinEnergieStadion

FC Koln
0 - 4
Dortmund

Chabot (76'), Thielmann (85')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Malen (12', 61'), Fullkrug (58' pen.), Moukoko (90+2')
Ozcan (27'), Maatsen (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between FC Koln and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

FC Koln

All competitions

Last Game: FC Koln 1-1 Heidenheim
Saturday, January 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Darmstadt 0-3 Dortmund
Saturday, January 13 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: FC Koln 0-2 Borussia Dortmund

Koln's recent home record against Dortmund bodes well for Saturday's contest, but BVB will still be regarded as firm favourites to come out on top. Without the presence of injured duo Selke and Waldschmidt – who have scored seven of Koln's 11 Bundesliga goals this season – the hosts may struggle to pose a threat in the final third against a Dortmund outfit, who have a plethora of attacking options at their disposal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 48.57%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 29.44% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.36%) and 0-2 (6.17%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 2-1 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
FC Koln	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
29.44%	21.98% ( 0)	48.57% ( -0)

Both teams to score 66.1% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.4% (

-0.02)

33.6% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.59% (

-0.02)

55.41% (

0.02)

FC Koln Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.17% (

-0.01)

22.83% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.45% (

-0.02)

56.55% (

0.02)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.66% (

-0.01)

14.34% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.81% (

-0.02)

42.19% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

FC Koln 29.44%

Borussia Dortmund 48.57%

Draw 21.98%

FC Koln	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 6.94% ( 0) 1-0 @ 4.84% ( 0) 2-0 @ 3.57% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.42% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.32% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.76% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.26% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.23% ( -0) Other @ 3.13% Total : 29.44%	1-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.74% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.27% ( 0) 3-3 @ 2.15% ( -0) Other @ 0.43% Total : 21.98%	1-2 @ 9.12% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.36% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.17% ( 0) 1-3 @ 5.9% ( -0) 2-3 @ 4.36% ( -0) 0-3 @ 4% ( 0) 1-4 @ 2.87% ( -0) 2-4 @ 2.12% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.94% 1-5 @ 1.11% ( -0) 3-4 @ 1.04% ( -0) Other @ 3.58% Total : 48.57%