Champions League | Group Stage
Dec 7, 2021 at 8pm UK
Amsterdam Arena
Ajax4 - 2Sporting Lisbon
We said: Ajax 2-2 Sporting Lisbon
With the top two settled in Group C, both teams can take a free run at this intriguing encounter, which should be a much closer affair than the one-sided first meeting back in September. Thanks to an abundance of pace and trickery, either side is adept at making opponents pay in the final third, so an open game should end in a score draw. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 47.37%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 33.54% and a draw had a probability of 19.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 6.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-2 (5.72%) and 3-1 (5.53%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (5.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 47.37% | 19.09% | 33.54% |
| Both teams to score 79.88% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
