Brasileiro | Gameweek 17

Jul 19, 2022 at 12am UK

Estadio Palestra Italia

Palmeiras
1 - 0
Cuiaba

Veron (49')
Gomez (43'), Cerqueira (68'), Atuesta (74')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Lucas (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Brasileiro clash between Palmeiras and Cuiaba, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Palmeiras

Last Six:

Last Game: Palmeiras 2-1 Sao Paulo (3-4 pen.)
Friday, July 15 at 12am in Copa do Brasil

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Mineiro	17	8	31
2	Palmeiras	16	15	30
3	Internacional	17	8	29

Palmeiras have made the race for first in the league a lot more interesting with a pair of slip-ups, but knowing there is little room for error should make them tighten up defensively and not be as passive in the attack. Cuiaba have done well to climb out from near the bottom of the standings, although they have not shown an ability to maintain much pressure in the final third, and defending a team with the quality of Palestra will not be as easy as their previous two opponents. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 74.74%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 8.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.31%) and 3-0 (10.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.89%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (3.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.

Result
Palmeiras	Draw	Cuiaba
74.74% ( 0.13)	16.88% ( -0.05)	8.38% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 39.85% (

-0.18)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.42% (

-0.05)

46.59% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.15% (

-0.04)

68.86% (

0.05)

Palmeiras Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.17% (

0.02)

10.83% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.1% (

0.05)

34.9% (

-0.04)

Cuiaba Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

44.69% (

-0.21)

55.31% (

0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.94% (

-0.12)

88.07% (

0.13)

Score Analysis

Palmeiras 74.72%

Cuiaba 8.38%

Draw 16.88%

Palmeiras	Draw	Cuiaba
2-0 @ 14.79% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 13.31% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 10.96% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.76% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 6.49% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 6.09% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.61% ( -0) 5-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.6% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 1% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.39% Total : 74.72%	1-1 @ 7.89% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.41% Total : 16.88%	0-1 @ 3.55% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.45% Total : 8.38%