Copa do Brasil | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg

Jul 15, 2022 at 12am UK

Allianz Parque

Palmeiras
2 - 1
Sao Paulo

(agg: -)

Piquerez (10'), Veiga (13')
Veiga (30'), Gomez (69'), Rocha (90+2')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Luciano (70' pen.)
Welington (5'), Neves (45'), Nestor (56'), Calleri (64'), Nikao (87')

Sao Paulo win 4-3 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa do Brasil clash between Palmeiras and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Palmeiras

Last Six:

Last Game: Fortaleza 0-0 Palmeiras
Sunday, July 10 at 10pm in Brasileiro

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Palmeiras	16	15	30
2	Corinthians	16	4	29
3	Internacional	16	8	28

Sao Paulo

Last Six:

Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 0-0 Sao Paulo
Sunday, July 10 at 10pm in Brasileiro

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
6	Athletico Paranaense	16	3	27
7	Sao Paulo	16	4	23
8	Santos	16	5	22

We said: Palmeiras 1-0 Sao Paulo (Palmeiras advance on penalties)

We anticipate this match will go down to the wire with neither side giving an inch, and if so it could be decided by a test of who has a stronger mettle. There are good arguments for each side to win, but ultimately, we are choosing Palestra, who look hungrier than ever to win everything possible, and they always seem to find another level in these big matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 55.65%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 21.55%.

The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.87%) and 2-0 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.

Result
Palmeiras	Draw	Sao Paulo
55.65% ( 3.53)	22.8% ( -1.15)	21.55% ( -2.38)

Both teams to score 54.7% (

0.71)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.09% (

2.4)

44.9% (

-2.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.74% (

2.27)

67.26% (

-2.27)

Palmeiras Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.01% (

2.15)

15.98% (

-2.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.71% (

3.8)

45.29% (

-3.81)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.11% (

-0.84)

34.89% (

0.84)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.37% (

-0.9)

71.63% (

0.89)

Score Analysis

Palmeiras 55.64%

Sao Paulo 21.55%

Draw 22.79%

Palmeiras	Draw	Sao Paulo
1-0 @ 10.22% ( -0.32) 2-1 @ 9.87% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 9.38% ( 0.38) 3-1 @ 6.03% ( 0.52) 3-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.61) 3-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.2) 4-1 @ 2.77% ( 0.41) 4-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.44) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.19) 5-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.21) 5-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.22) Other @ 2.41% Total : 55.64%	1-1 @ 10.76% ( -0.59) 0-0 @ 5.58% ( -0.6) 2-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.79%	0-1 @ 5.87% ( -0.78) 1-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.45) 0-2 @ 3.09% ( -0.49) 1-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.21) 2-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.2) Other @ 2.02% Total : 21.55%