Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Jun 14, 2023 at 5pm UK

Estadio Nacional 24 de Setembro

Sao Tome
0 - 1
Guinea-Bissau

Pires da Mata (51')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Gano (55')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Sao Tome & Principe and Guinea-Bissau, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sao Tome & Principe

Last Game: Sao Tome 0-2 Sierra Leone
Sunday, March 26 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Guinea-Bissau

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 0-1 Nigeria
Monday, March 27 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Nigeria	3	5	9
2	Egypt	3	1	6
3	Sudan	3	-3	1
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-3	1

We said: Sao Tome & Principe 0-2 Guinea-Bissau

Neither team is in particularly good form heading into this one, but Guinea-Bissau will back themselves to triumph against a Sao Tome side who have been found wanting at both ends of the pitch in recent games. We are backing the visitors to carry the day here in a relatively comfortable manner. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea-Bissau win with a probability of 46.91%. A win for Sao Tome & Principe had a probability of 26.84% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guinea-Bissau win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.11%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Sao Tome & Principe win was 1-0 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Guinea-Bissau in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Guinea-Bissau.

Result
Sao Tome & Principe	Draw	Guinea-Bissau
26.84% ( 0.66)	26.25% ( -0.09)	46.91% ( -0.58)

Both teams to score 49.67% (

0.78)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.69% (

0.76)

54.3% (

-0.77)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.3% (

0.63)

75.69% (

-0.63)

Sao Tome & Principe Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.62% (

0.96)

35.38% (

-0.97)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.86% (

0.99)

72.14% (

-0.99)

Guinea-Bissau Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.86% (

0.06)

23.13% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43% (

0.09)

57% (

-0.1)

Score Analysis

Sao Tome & Principe 26.84%

Guinea-Bissau 46.91%

Draw 26.24%

Sao Tome & Principe	Draw	Guinea-Bissau
1-0 @ 8.5% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 6.47% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 2.24% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 1.53% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.04% Total : 26.84%	1-1 @ 12.44% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.18% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 4.73% ( 0.12) Other @ 0.88% Total : 26.24%	0-1 @ 11.98% ( -0.33) 1-2 @ 9.11% ( 0) 0-2 @ 8.77% ( -0.23) 1-3 @ 4.45% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 4.28% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 2.31% ( 0.07) 1-4 @ 1.63% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.82% Total : 46.91%