Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Jun 9, 2022 at 5pm UK

Stade de Marrakech

Guinea-Bissau
5 - 1
Sao Tome

Semedo (40'), Gano (50', 58'), Banjaqui (80'), Jorginho (87')
Encada (90+2')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Domingos Lima Viegas (21')
Soares Goncalves Ceita (82'), Cruz Dos Santos (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Guinea-Bissau and Sao Tome & Principe, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Guinea-Bissau

Last Six:

Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 5-1 Sao Tome
Thursday, June 9 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Next Game: Sierra Leone vs. Guinea-Bissau
Monday, June 13 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Nigeria	3	5	9
2	Egypt	3	1	6
3	Sudan	3	-3	1
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-3	1

Sao Tome & Principe

Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 5-1 Sao Tome
Thursday, June 9 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Guinea-Bissau 1-0 Sao Tome & Principe

We expect a tight and cagey affair in this one, with neither team giving too much away due to the fear of defeat. Nonetheless, we are also tipping the home side to scrape to a narrow win come the end of the 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea-Bissau win with a probability of 67.57%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Sao Tome & Principe had a probability of 11.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guinea-Bissau win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.1%) and 3-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.53%), while for a Sao Tome & Principe win it was 0-1 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guinea-Bissau would win this match.

Result
Guinea-Bissau	Draw	Sao Tome & Principe
67.57% ( -3.17)	21.42% ( 2.23)	11.02% ( 0.95)

Both teams to score 36.69% (

-2.79)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.02% (

-5.87)

56.99% (

5.87)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.12% (

-4.91)

77.88% (

4.92)

Guinea-Bissau Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.87% (

-2.89)

16.14% (

2.9)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.43% (

-5.56)

45.57% (

5.56)

Sao Tome & Principe Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

43.75% (

-1.75)

56.25% (

1.76)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.39% (

-1.04)

88.62% (

1.04)

Score Analysis

Guinea-Bissau 67.56%

Sao Tome & Principe 11.02%

Draw 21.42%

Guinea-Bissau	Draw	Sao Tome & Principe
1-0 @ 16.55% ( 1.97) 2-0 @ 15.1% ( 0.36) 3-0 @ 9.18% ( -0.76) 2-1 @ 8.69% ( -0.27) 3-1 @ 5.28% ( -0.75) 4-0 @ 4.19% ( -0.84) 4-1 @ 2.41% ( -0.64) 5-0 @ 1.53% ( -0.51) 3-2 @ 1.52% ( -0.31) Other @ 3.12% Total : 67.56%	1-1 @ 9.53% ( 0.67) 0-0 @ 9.08% ( 1.86) 2-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.22) Other @ 0.31% Total : 21.42%	0-1 @ 5.22% ( 0.84) 1-2 @ 2.74% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.17) Other @ 1.55% Total : 11.02%