Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heidenheim win with a probability of 54.13%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 21.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heidenheim win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.78%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.38%), while for a Erzgebirge Aue win it was 0-1 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heidenheim would win this match.