Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heidenheim win with a probability of 59.72%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 17.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heidenheim win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.11%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Erzgebirge Aue win it was 0-1 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heidenheim would win this match.