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Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 20
Dec 26, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
The Oval
Bala Town logo

Caernarfon
1 - 5
Bala Town

Thomas (5')
Williams (30')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Kay (10'), Nalatche Mendes (34'), Wall (51'), Shannon (65'), Davies (90+2')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Bala Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Flint Town 2-1 Caernarfon
Friday, December 23 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Bala Town

All competitions
Last Game: Bala Town 2-1 Airbus UK
Friday, December 23 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bala Town win with a probability of 63.91%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 16.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bala Town win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.92%) and 0-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.41%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 2-1 (4.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bala Town would win this match.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawBala Town
16.08% (0.079000000000001 0.08) 20.02% (0.184 0.18) 63.91% (-0.25700000000001 -0.26)
Both teams to score 54.01% (-0.453 -0.45)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.06% (-0.687 -0.69)40.94% (0.694 0.69)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.67% (-0.704 -0.7)63.33% (0.71 0.71)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.47% (-0.32 -0.32)38.53% (0.32700000000001 0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.72% (-0.308 -0.31)75.28% (0.315 0.31)
Bala Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.86% (-0.27200000000001 -0.27)12.14% (0.279 0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.26% (-0.584 -0.58)37.74% (0.592 0.59)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 16.08%
    Bala Town 63.9%
    Draw 20.02%
Caernarfon TownDrawBala Town
2-1 @ 4.49% (0.013 0.01)
1-0 @ 4.46% (0.101 0.1)
2-0 @ 2.13% (0.03 0.03)
3-2 @ 1.5% (-0.025 -0.02)
3-1 @ 1.43% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.07%
Total : 16.08%
1-1 @ 9.41% (0.112 0.11)
2-2 @ 4.73% (-0.037 -0.04)
0-0 @ 4.68% (0.146 0.15)
3-3 @ 1.06% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 20.02%
0-2 @ 10.39% (0.1 0.1)
1-2 @ 9.92% (0.0089999999999986 0.01)
0-1 @ 9.86% (0.203 0.2)
0-3 @ 7.31% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-3 @ 6.97% (-0.07 -0.07)
0-4 @ 3.85% (-0.047 -0.05)
1-4 @ 3.68% (-0.078 -0.08)
2-3 @ 3.32% (-0.064 -0.06)
2-4 @ 1.75% (-0.053 -0.05)
0-5 @ 1.63% (-0.038 -0.04)
1-5 @ 1.55% (-0.05 -0.05)
Other @ 3.67%
Total : 63.9%

Head to Head
Apr 18, 2022 2.30pm
Caernarfon
0-2
Bala Town

Donohue (55')
Simpson (80')
Evans (55'), Ebbe (75')
Feb 12, 2022 5.15pm
Caernarfon
3-3
Bala Town
Faux (49'), Bradley (71'), Jones (84')
Donohue (37')
Ebbe (14', 44'), Evans (86')
Smith (90'), Evans (90+3')
Feb 4, 2022 7.45pm
Bala Town
3-0
Caernarfon
Ebbe (36'), Shannon (71', 90+5')
Smith (75')

Hughes (29'), Bailey (55'), Thomas (62'), Jones (82')
Bailey (56')
May 4, 2021 7.45pm
Caernarfon
3-0
Bala Town
Cleworth (11', 45'), Bradley (54')

Stephens (52'), Smith (69'), Smith (79')
Apr 17, 2021 5.15pm
Bala Town
5-2
Caernarfon
Venables (20', 89'), Spittle (57'), Evans (69', 90+3')
Evans (14'), Venables (35'), Spittle (45+2'), A (45+2'), A (45+3')
Bickerstaff (33'), Hayes (45+2' pen.)
Edwards (36'), M (56')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont1510412982134
2The New SaintsNew Saints13100339132630
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest158521961329
4Cardiff MUCardiff MU157352017324
5Barry Town UnitedBarry156452226-422
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon156362224-221
7Bala TownBala Town154831915420
8Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay155461815319
9Newtown AFCNewtown155462030-1019
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town1532101731-1411
11Briton Ferry132291528-138
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth1521121138-277
> Welsh Premier League Full Table


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