Serie A | Gameweek 31
Apr 6, 2024 at 5pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Roma1 - 0Lazio
We said: Roma 1-0 Lazio
Roma have not won a Derby della Capitale since March 2022, but with both momentum and club icon Daniele De Rossi on their side, they can end that drought this weekend. Goal-shy Lazio are still a work in progress under Igor Tudor, who is trying to unpick two years of 'Sarri-ball'. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 57%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 20.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (5.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Roma in this match.
| Result | ||
| Roma | Draw | Lazio |
57% ( 0.16) | 22.81% ( -0.01) | 20.19% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 52.6% ( -0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
