With a spot in the opening phase of the MLS Cup playoffs at stake, the New York Red Bulls host Charlotte FC on Wednesday at Red Bull Arena in the wild card round.
Both sides earned 1-0 victories on Decision Day to claim the final two post-season spots in the Eastern Conference, with the Red Bulls defeating Nashville SC, while the Crown took care of Inter Miami.
Match preview
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Seeing the Red Bulls in the playoffs seems like an old habit, however for a long time this season, that scenario seemed incredibly unlikely.
When Troy Lesesne took charge of this team in May in place of Gerhard Struber, they had just one win in their first 11 MLS fixtures, but thanks to four victories in their last five encounters, they are back in the post-season for a 14th successive campaign.
It took a 94th-minute penalty on Decision Day to get them above the playoff line as they ended the regular season with the second-fewest goals conceded in the Eastern Conference (39).
Their defensive shape was solid all year, but their attacking prowess not so much as the Red Bulls were tied for the third-fewest goals scored in the Eastern Conference during the regular season (36).
New York are used to being in the playoffs but winning at this stage has been a rarity for them, with the Red Bulls losing their last four post-season fixtures and going without a victory at this stage of a campaign since a 1-0 triumph over Atlanta United in 2018, though they were eliminated from that conference final 3-1 on aggregate.
In 2023, the Red Bulls only lost two games in the domestic campaign when scoring the opening goal, and just one at Red Bull Arena - versus FC Cincinnati in June (2-1).
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For the first time in club history, Charlotte are in the playoffs, thanks to a four-match domestic unbeaten run to end the regular season, including three victories.
Their ascent into the post-season is equally as remarkable as the Red Bulls', with the Crown winning just one of their first eight MLS fixtures this year while also incurring an eight-match winless run from May 31 to July 15.
Down the stretch of the 2023 regular season, Christian Lattanzio's men were virtually impenetrable on the back end though, posting three clean sheets in their final four encounters.
Thanks to their victory on Saturday, not only were the Crown able to sneak into the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, but they also set a new club record for the most points in a single MLS campaign (43), eclipsing the mark they set a year ago by a single point.
They struggled on the road for the most part over this domestic campaign, claiming just four victories, but picked up some valuable away points in the latter stages of the season, losing just one of their final three games as the visitors.
In three prior visits to Red Bull Arena Charlotte have never won, with their best result in Harrison coming this season when the Crown squandered a 2-0 half-time advantage and played to a 2-2 draw.
Team News
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For this winner-takes-all showdown, the Red Bulls could be missing Cory Burke, who is dealing with a sore groin, Dante Vanzeir has an issue with his back, Lewis Morgan is out with a problem in his hip, while Hassan Ndam will not be available due to a thigh injury.
A 94th-minute penalty from John Tolkin on Saturday gave New York the victory, enabling them to leapfrog CF Montreal for a playoff berth with Carlos Coronel stopping four shots for his second successive clean sheet.
Elias Manoel has three goals in his career versus Charlotte, and he assisted on their first goal against them earlier this season scored by Vanzeir, with Cameron Harper levelling that match minutes later.
Vinicius Mello and Ben Bender are both doubtful for the Crown on Wednesday as they are dealing with a left knee and right lower leg injury, respectively.
A 13th-minute strike from Kerwin Vargas was enough to see Charlotte past Inter Miami this past weekend, while Kristijan Kahlina made three stops for his third clean sheet in his last four MLS affairs.
Bender has netted three times for them against the Red Bulls, notching a brace in their draw earlier this season, while he and Derrick Jones were on the mark in their only victory against them at home during the 2022 domestic campaign (2-0).
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; Duncan, D. Nealis, S. Nealis, Tolkin; Yearwood, Edelman, Amaya, Carmona; Luquinhas; Manoel
Charlotte FC possible starting lineup:
Kahlina; Byrne, Malanda, Tuiloma, Lindsey; Swiderski, Westwood, Bronico; Jozwiak, Copetti, Vargas
We say: New York Red Bulls 1-0 Charlotte FC
Home-field advantage and overall playoff experience should give the Red Bulls a slight edge on Wednesday, which we believe will propel them into the next round.
How to watch
You can watch New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC and every MLS match this season live on Apple TV. Click here for more details on how to subscribe.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 55.1%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Charlotte FC had a probability of 21.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for a Charlotte FC win it was 0-1 (6.63%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
Joel Lefevre
