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Premier League | Gameweek 10
Oct 8, 2022 at 3pm UK
St James' Park
Brentford logo

Newcastle
5 - 1
Brentford

Guimaraes (21', 56'), Murphy (28'), Almiron (82'), Pinnock (90' og.)
FT(HT: 2-0)
Toney (54' pen.)
Toney (45+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Newcastle United and Brentford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newcastle United

All competitions
Premier League
Last Game: Fulham 1-4 Newcastle
Saturday, October 1 at 3pm in Premier League

Brentford

All competitions
Premier League
Last Game: Bournemouth 0-0 Brentford
Saturday, October 1 at 3pm in Premier League

We said: Newcastle United 2-1 Brentford

 The last five meetings between these two sides at St James' Park have seen a total of 24 goals scored at an average of 4.8 per match, and there could be plenty more goalmouth action in the North East this weekend. Both Newcastle and Brentford will fancy their chances of success, but we can see the hosts following up last weekend's victory with another three points on Saturday in front of their own fans. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 46.52%. A win for Brentford had a probability of 27.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Brentford win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.

Result
Newcastle UnitedDrawBrentford
46.52% (0.606 0.61) 25.59% (-0.129 -0.13) 27.88% (-0.485 -0.48)
Both teams to score 52.42% (0.064999999999998 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.9% (0.24 0.24)51.09% (-0.248 -0.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.05% (0.21 0.21)72.95% (-0.218 -0.22)
Newcastle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.04% (0.37299999999999 0.37)21.95% (-0.381 -0.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.75% (0.567 0.57)55.24% (-0.575 -0.58)
Brentford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.16% (-0.245 -0.25)32.83% (0.237 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.6% (-0.273 -0.27)69.4% (0.264 0.26)
Score Analysis
    Newcastle United 46.51%
    Brentford 27.88%
    Draw 25.59%
Newcastle UnitedDrawBrentford
1-0 @ 10.92% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.23% (0.058999999999999 0.06)
2-0 @ 8.29% (0.106 0.11)
3-1 @ 4.66% (0.082999999999999 0.08)
3-0 @ 4.19% (0.1 0.1)
3-2 @ 2.6% (0.029 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.77% (0.051 0.05)
4-0 @ 1.59% (0.056 0.06)
4-2 @ 0.98% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 46.51%
1-1 @ 12.17% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-0 @ 7.21% (-0.072 -0.07)
2-2 @ 5.14% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-3 @ 0.96% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.59%
0-1 @ 8.03% (-0.133 -0.13)
1-2 @ 6.78% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
0-2 @ 4.47% (-0.104 -0.1)
1-3 @ 2.52% (-0.047 -0.05)
2-3 @ 1.91% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.66% (-0.05 -0.05)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 27.88%

How you voted: Newcastle vs Brentford

Newcastle United
79.7%
Draw
14.9%
Brentford
5.4%
222
Head to Head
Feb 26, 2022 3pm
Brentford
0-2
Newcastle

Ajer (45+1'), Mbeumo (84'), Janelt (90+5')
Dasilva (11')
Joelinton (33'), Willock (44')
Dubravka (68')
Nov 20, 2021 3pm
Newcastle
3-3
Brentford
Lascelles (10'), Joelinton (39'), Saint-Maximin (75')
Wilson (46'), Saint-Maximin (75')
Toney (11'), Henry (31'), Lascelles (61' og.)
Ghoddos (42'), Norgaard (83')
Dec 22, 2020 5.30pm
Brentford
1-0
Newcastle
Dasilva (66')

Shelvey (70')
Jan 14, 2017 3pm
Brentford
1-2
Newcastle
Vibe (52')
Vibe (81')
Gayle (20'), Murphy (79')
Dummett (31')
Oct 15, 2016 3pm
Newcastle
3-1
Brentford
Clark (11'), Gayle (16', 49')
Gouffran (26'), Colback (38'), Atsu (42')
Hogan (52')
Dean (24'), Sawyers (72'), Woods (73')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool16123137162139
2Chelsea17105237191835
3Arsenal1796234161833
4Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest179442319431
5Bournemouth178452721628
6Aston Villa178452626028
7Manchester CityMan City178362925427
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle177552721626
9Fulham176742422225
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton176742726125
11Tottenham HotspurSpurs1772839251423
12Brentford177283232023
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd176472122-122
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham175572230-820
15Everton163761421-716
16Crystal Palace173771826-816
17Leicester CityLeicester173592137-1614
18Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1733112740-1312
19Ipswich TownIpswich172691632-1612
20Southampton1713131136-256
> Premier League Full Table


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