Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 46.57%. A win for CF Montreal had a probability of 29.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.01%) and 0-2 (7.43%). The likeliest CF Montreal win was 2-1 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.