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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 53.69%. A win for Walsall had a probability of 23.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Walsall win was 0-1 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.89%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
Result | ||
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Walsall |
53.69% ( -0.24) | 23.14% ( 0) | 23.16% ( 0.23) |
Both teams to score 55.73% ( 0.28) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.43% ( 0.23) | 44.57% ( -0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.06% ( 0.22) | 66.94% ( -0.22) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.45% ( -0) | 16.54% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.69% ( -0) | 46.31% ( 0) |
Walsall Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.77% ( 0.33) | 33.22% ( -0.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.17% ( 0.36) | 69.83% ( -0.37) |
Score Analysis |
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Walsall |
1-0 @ 9.89% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 9.8% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.9% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 5.88% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.34% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.24% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.64% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.4% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 3.2% Total : 53.69% | 1-1 @ 10.89% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.5% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.4% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.14% | 0-1 @ 6.06% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 3.34% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.35% Total : 23.16% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 43 |
2 | Port Vale | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 37 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 36 |
4 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 35 |
5 | Chesterfield | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 36 | 23 | 13 | 34 |
6 | AFC Wimbledon | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 33 |
7 | Notts County | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 21 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 31 |
9 | MK Dons | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 30 |
10 | Gillingham | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 30 |
11 | Salford City | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 30 |
12 | Bradford CityBradford | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 28 |
13 | Bromley | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 27 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 27 |
15 | BarrowBarrow | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 26 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 26 |
17 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 20 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 23 |
18 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 23 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 21 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 21 |
21 | Swindon TownSwindon | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 19 |
22 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 19 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 15 |
24 | Morecambe | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 14 |
> League Two Full Table |