FC Koln entertain Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on Wednesday, with the visitors travelling to Cologne as league leaders.
Koln, meanwhile, put three points between themselves and the relegation zone with a vital 1-0 win at fellow strugglers Mainz 05.
Match preview
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Koln's victory at Mainz was made all the more impressive by former Norwich City loanee Ondrej Duda being sent off for them, with around 15 minutes still remaining for the hosts to find an equaliser.
After a quiet first period, Elvis Rexhbecaj fired Markus Gisdol's side ahead ten minutes after the break, before Duda saw red to allow Mainz back into the game. However, Koln held on to secure a vital three points.
Hosting the current league leaders will be a completely different kettle of fish, but Gisdol and his players will take confidence from the fact they have beaten Borussia Dortmund and held Wolfsburg to a draw in recent weeks to embark on a three match unbeaten run.
Having remained competitive in almost every match this season, Koln's luck appears to have swung in their favour after rather unfortunately losing five of their opening eight matches. Gisdol must ensure standards do not slip, however, to minimise their chances of sliding back into the bottom three.
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Leverkusen, meanwhile, are absolutely flying at present, having remained unbeaten in the league all season and winning nine of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
With qualification for the knockout stages of the Europa League as group winners wrapped up, Peter Bosz can now fully focus on attempting to keep his side at the top of the table.
His side certainly looked like potential title winners when dispatching Hoffenheim 4-1 on Sunday, with Leon Bailey's first-half brace giving the hosts a commanding lead heading into the break.
Florian Wirtz quickly restored Leverkusen's two-goal lead after Christoph Baumgartner had pulled one back five minutes into the second half, with Florian Grillitsch and Stefan Posch both receiving second yellow cards to seal another Leverkusen victory long before Lucas Alario's last-minute penalty.
With Koln coming into form of late, Bosz will be guarding against complacency ahead of the trip to Cologne, with a win ensuring his side will face Bayern Munich on Saturday as league leaders.
FC Koln Bundesliga form: LDLWDW
Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga form: WWWDWW
Bayer Leverkusen form (all competitions): WDWWWW
Team News
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Koln will be without the suspended Duda, with Florian Kainz (knee) and Jonas Hector (neck) remaining out through injury.
Anthony Modeste returned to action from the substitutes' bench in the win at Mainz, so could come into the side for Duda.
Leverkusen's form has been all the more impressive considering the amount of long-term absentees they have, with Exequiel Palacios, Santiago Arias, Sven Bender, Paulinho and Charles Aranguiz all on the treatment table.
Kerem Demirbay is also unavailable due to coronavirus, but Bosz does at least finally have both Alario and Patrik Schick simultaneously available, with the latter perhaps set to be rested for the weekend's crunch match against Bayern.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
T. Horn; Cestic, Bornauw, J. Horn; Wolf, Jakobs, Skhiri, Ozcan, Rexhbecaj; Thielmann, Modeste
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Bender, Tah, Dragovic, Sinkgraven; Wirtz, Baumgartlinger, Amiri; Bailey, Alario, Diaby
We say: FC Koln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen
Koln have rarely been well beaten this season and we do not expect that to change on Wednesday even against the league leaders.
However, Leverkusen are playing with real confidence and belief at present, and should have a little too much quality for their opponents.
Top betting tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 75.64%. A draw had a probability of 14.8% and a win for FC Koln had a probability of 9.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.36%) and 1-2 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.8%), while for a FC Koln win it was 2-1 (2.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
