Canadian outfit Toronto have the opportunity to lift themselves off the bottom of the table with victory over Sunday's opponents Inter Miami, if the result from Cincinnati's game against New England falls in their favour.
Phil Neville's side have two games in hand on Toronto but will want to pick up three points on the weekend to make the gap to the foot of the Eastern Conference bigger.
Match preview
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Inter Miami have managed to turn their form around for the better in recent games, only losing once in their last six outings, compared to the previous six games when they were beaten consecutively for two months.
After disappointment against New York City on Sunday, Neville's side bounced back from that defeat in style with a 3-2 win against Chicago Fire, sealed in dramatic last-minute fashion.
Indiana Vassilev had put the home side 1-0 to the good but Robbie Robinson had to equalise for Inter Miami after Chicago had gone 2-1 up just after half time.
Second-half substitute Rodolfo Pizarro was the hero on Sunday, scoring a 93rd-minute winner, which has helped his side go within one point of Chicago, who are 11th and just ahead of them in the table.
With two games in hand on many of their Eastern Conference opponents, Neville will be hoping his side can start to climb the table, and if they win their two games in hand, Inter Miami could be just a couple of points behind a playoff spot.
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Meanwhile, Toronto's form is not giving them much hope of climbing off the foot of the table, having not won in their last five games.
Ezequiel Barco's 20th-minute strike was enough to seal three points for Atlanta United in Toronto's last outing, and that goal means that the Canadian side have only managed one clean sheet this season.
Toronto's defensive problems seem to be the main cause of Javier Perez's side's league position, as they have scored more goals than any other team that are outside the top seven in the Eastern Conference, but they have conceded 41 goals in 20 fixtures.
Breaking that down further, just over 65% of those goals that have found their way past Toronto's defence have come away from home, which does not support their quest for three points on Sunday.
The visitors could rely on set pieces to gain a result against Inter Miami, having scored seven times this season from corners or free kicks, and Inter Miami have shown frailties around defending set pieces.
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Team News
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Neville will be without three players this weekend, including Ian Fray, Joevin Jones and Ventura Alvarado, but those absentees will not change how Inter Miami could line up, as they are expected to start with the same 11 that beat Chicago on Thursday.
Former Real Madrid striker Gonzalo Higuain continued his good form this season with an assist in their last outing, and his side rely on him as he has been directly involved in the most goals out of any of his other teammates.
Robinson had a welcomed return last time out, scoring the second goal in the game against Chicago after being out of the side with concussion for the previous two weeks.
Toronto winger Tsubasa Endoh and striker Dom Dwyer are closing in on their returns to action, recovering from injuries that they picked up at the beginning of this month, but they will not be ready to play this weekend.
There is more attacking concern for Perez with striker Ayo Akinola also sidelined with a cruciate ligament injury, which will see him ruled out until next year.
Goalkeeper Alexander Bono has been Toronto's number one for the majority of this season, but Quentin Westberg came into the starting 11 last time out, and he is expected to remain between the posts having performed well against Atlanta.
Perez could revert back to the lineup which lost to New England last weekend, including a recall for Alejandro Pozuelo, who scored in that game, but was absent for Thursday's clash against Atlanta.
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Marsman; Makoun, Figal, Pirez; Gibbs, Matuidi, Gregore, Morgan; Robinson, Higuain, Vassilev
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Westberg; Lawrence, Zavaleta, Gonzalez, Laryea; Priso, Delgado; Soteldo, Pozuelo, Osorio; Achara
We say: Inter Miami 2-0 Toronto
Neville's side will take confidence from their victory on Thursday and could start to believe that putting a string of victories together could see the side charge for the playoff positions.
The opportunity to play Toronto at home after the Canadian outfit's recent defeats will give Inter Miami belief that this is a game that they must win in order to climb the Eastern Conference.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Miami win with a probability of 55.94%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 20.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Miami win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.31%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.24%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (6.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Inter Miami would win this match.
