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Europa League
Roma logo
Europa League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg
Apr 18, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Milan logo

Roma
2 - 1
AC Milan

Mancini (12'), Dybala (22')
Celik (31')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Gabbia (85')
Calabria (32'), Gabbia (46'), Adli (51'), Jovic (77'), Tomori (89'), Hernandez (90+2')

The Match

Match Report

Roma book their spot in the semi-finals of the Europa League courtesy of a 3-1 aggregate victory over Serie A rivals AC Milan in the quarter-finals of the competition.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Roma and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: AC Milan 0-1 Roma
Thursday, April 11 at 8pm in Europa League

AC Milan

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Sassuolo 3-3 AC Milan
Sunday, April 14 at 2pm in Serie A

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 40.56%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 33.68% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (8.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.

Result
RomaDrawAC Milan
40.56% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 25.75% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01) 33.68% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 54.67% (0.036000000000001 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.56% (0.042999999999999 0.04)49.44% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.52% (0.039999999999999 0.04)71.47% (-0.036999999999992 -0.04)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.9% (0.016999999999996 0.02)24.1% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.61% (0.024000000000001 0.02)58.39% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.02% (0.034000000000006 0.03)27.98% (-0.029999999999998 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.38% (0.039999999999999 0.04)63.61% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Roma 40.56%
    AC Milan 33.68%
    Draw 25.75%
RomaDrawAC Milan
1-0 @ 9.59% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.7%
2-0 @ 6.83% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.13% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 3.24% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 2.63% (0.0029999999999997 0)
4-1 @ 1.47% (0.002 0)
4-0 @ 1.15%
4-2 @ 0.94% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 40.56%
1-1 @ 12.22%
0-0 @ 6.74% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.54% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-3 @ 1.12% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.75%
0-1 @ 8.59% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
1-2 @ 7.78% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 5.47%
1-3 @ 3.31% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 2.35% (0.004 0)
0-3 @ 2.32% (0.0020000000000002 0)
1-4 @ 1.05% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.81%
Total : 33.68%

How you voted: Roma vs AC Milan

Roma
40.6%
Draw
18.4%
AC Milan
41.0%
266
Head to Head
Apr 11, 2024 8pm
Quarter-Finals 1st Leg
AC Milan
0-1
Roma

Pioli (17'), Pulisic (33'), Adli (63'), Loftus-Cheek (73')
Mancini (17')
Cristante (38')
> Match Report
Jan 14, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 20
AC Milan
3-1
Roma
Adli (11'), Giroud (56'), Hernandez (84')
Kjaer (71'), Gabbia (90')
Paredes (69' pen.)
Mancini (43'), Cristante (56'), Huijsen (81')
> Preview
Sep 1, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 3
Roma
1-2
AC Milan
Spinazzola (90+2')
Paredes (69'), Lukaku (85')
Giroud (9' pen.), Leao (48')
Tomori (19'), Loftus-Cheek (34'), Okafor (90+7')
Tomori (61')
> Preview
Apr 29, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 32
Roma
1-1
AC Milan
Abraham (90+4')
Saelemaekers (90+7')
> Preview
Jan 8, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 17
AC Milan
2-2
Roma
Kalulu (30'), Pobega (77')
Ibanez (87'), Abraham (90+3')
> Preview
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