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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 62.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 17.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.43%) and 1-0 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.27%), while for a Willem II win it was 1-2 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Willem II |
62.2% ( 1.08) | 20.1% ( -0.3) | 17.7% ( -0.78) |
Both teams to score 57.31% ( -0.49) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.7% ( 0.08) | 38.29% ( -0.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.42% ( 0.08) | 60.57% ( -0.08) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.18% ( 0.32) | 11.81% ( -0.32) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.95% ( 0.68) | 37.05% ( -0.68) |
Willem II Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.99% ( -0.8) | 35% ( 0.8) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.25% ( -0.85) | 71.75% ( 0.85) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Willem II |
2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.43% ( 0.2) 1-0 @ 8.83% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 7.05% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 6.72% ( 0.23) 4-1 @ 3.76% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 3.7% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 3.59% ( 0.16) 4-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.61% ( 0.06) 5-0 @ 1.53% ( 0.09) Other @ 4.1% Total : 62.2% | 1-1 @ 9.27% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.1% | 1-2 @ 4.87% ( -0.17) 0-1 @ 4.34% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 2.28% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.69% Total : 17.7% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 15 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 56 | 12 | 44 | 42 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 35 |
3 | Ajax | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 33 |
4 | Feyenoord | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 32 |
5 | FC Twente | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 28 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 26 |
7 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 22 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 21 |
9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 19 |
10 | Heerenveen | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 18 |
11 | NECNijmegen | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 16 |
12 | Willem II | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 16 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
14 | Groningen | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 37 | -22 | 6 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 34 | -27 | 6 |
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