Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 45.76%. A win for Carlos Manucci had a probability of 28.22% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.11%) and 0-2 (8.3%). The likeliest Carlos Manucci win was 1-0 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.
