Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 37.65%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 35.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.15%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (10.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Melgar in this match.
