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Copa Libertadores
Club Libertad
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 26, 2022 at 11pm UK
Estadio Dr. Nicolas Leoz

Libertad
4 - 1
The Strongest

Melgarejo (25'), Mendieta (55' pen., 90'), Jusino (71' og.)
Merlini (33'), Barboza (76'), Caballero (81'), Gomez (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Ursino (41')
Aponte (35'), Saucedo (50'), Benegas (55'), Triverio (56')
Aponte (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Club Libertad and The Strongest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Club Libertad

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Last Game: Libertad 4-1 The Strongest
Thursday, May 26 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Next Game: Athletico PR vs. Libertad
Wednesday, June 29 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
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The Strongest

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Last Game: Libertad 4-1 The Strongest
Thursday, May 26 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Next Game: The Strongest vs. Ceara
Wednesday, June 29 at 11.15pm in Copa Sudamericana
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We said: Club Libertad 2-1 The Strongest

 The Strongest's thrashing of Athletico Paranaense earlier in the group stage certainly makes us think that they could stage another surprise result, but we ultimately expect them to fall just short. Libertad have a strong squad and will be confident of winning to progress, particularly with home advantage. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Libertad win with a probability of 50.26%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for The Strongest had a probability of 24.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club Libertad win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for a The Strongest win it was 0-1 (7.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Club Libertad would win this match.

Result
Club LibertadDrawThe Strongest
50.26% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05) 25.58% (0.012999999999998 0.01) 24.16% (0.044 0.04)
Both teams to score 49.26% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.33% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)53.67% (0.017000000000003 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.83% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)75.16% (0.013999999999996 0.01)
Club Libertad Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.62% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)21.38% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.64% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)54.36% (0.047999999999995 0.05)
The Strongest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.65% (0.030999999999999 0.03)37.35% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.87% (0.032 0.03)74.13% (-0.027999999999992 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Club Libertad 50.25%
    The Strongest 24.16%
    Draw 25.58%
Club LibertadDrawThe Strongest
1-0 @ 12.31% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 9.5% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.36% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 4.89% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.81% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.37% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 1.89% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 1.86% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 0.91% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 2.36%
Total : 50.25%
1-1 @ 12.13% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.98% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-2 @ 4.61% (0.0019999999999998 0)
Other @ 0.86%
Total : 25.58%
0-1 @ 7.86% (0.011 0.01)
1-2 @ 5.98% (0.008 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.87% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.96% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 1.51% (0.002 0)
0-3 @ 1.27% (0.004 0)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 24.16%

How you voted: Libertad vs The Strongest

Club Libertad
69.2%
Draw
30.8%
The Strongest
0.0%
13
Head to Head
Apr 8, 2022 3am
The Strongest
1-1
Libertad
Triverio (11')
Vaca (3'), Aponte (34'), Demiquel (82')
Merlini (14')
Melgarejo (36')
Feb 13, 2019 9.15pm
Libertad
5-1
The Strongest
Martinez (31', 61', 77'), Cardozo (87'), Cougo (93')
Cardozo (57')
Machado (44')
Ortiz (12'), Blackburn (74'), Veizaga (89')
Ortiz (73')
Feb 5, 2019 11.30pm
The Strongest
1-1
Libertad
Bejarano (59')
Wayar (9')
Martinez (81')
Silva (79')
May 4, 2018 1.30am
The Strongest
1-3
Libertad
Castro (48')
Valverde (58'), Escobar (62'), Bejarano (87'), Vaca (92')
Cardozo (22', 93'), Bareiro (86')
Munoz (84')
Apr 3, 2018 11.15pm
Libertad
3-0
The Strongest
Baez Mendoza (59'), Luis Leiva Lopez (66', 93')

Carcelen (16'), Escobar (88')
Carcelen (28')
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