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Champions League
Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Jul 18, 2023 at 7pm UK
Stadion Bijeli Brijeg

Zrinjski Mostar
2 - 3
Urartu

Bilbija (27'), Kis (94' pen.)
Maric (105')
FT
(aet)
Grigoryan (74', 90+1' pen.), Maksimenko (105+3')
Maric (55'), Margaryan (70'), Junior (90+4'), Mirzoyan (120')
Zrinjski Mostar win 4-3 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Zrinjski Mostar and Urartu, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Zrinjski Mostar

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Last Game: Urartu 0-1 Zrinjski Mostar
Tuesday, July 11 at 4pm in Champions League
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Urartu

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Last Game: Urartu 0-1 Zrinjski Mostar
Tuesday, July 11 at 4pm in Champions League
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We say: Zrinjski Mostar 1-0 Urartu

 There was very little to split these two sides in Armenia last week prior to Senic's dramatic late winner, which has put the tie firmly in his side's own hands. The visitors will have to show more offensive bravery than they managed in the first leg, but we can envisage the hosts doubling their lead in the tie at some stage, before successfully holding onto it. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zrinjski Mostar win with a probability of 58.4%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Urartu had a probability of 17.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Zrinjski Mostar win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.55%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.17%), while for a Urartu win it was 0-1 (6.52%).

Result
Zrinjski MostarDrawUrartu
58.4% (0.024000000000001 0.02) 23.69% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01) 17.9% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)
Both teams to score 46.17% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.69% (0.019000000000005 0.02)53.31% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.14% (0.016000000000002 0.02)74.85% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)
Zrinjski Mostar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.98% (0.019000000000005 0.02)18.02% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.1% (0.028999999999996 0.03)48.9% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Urartu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.32% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)43.67% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.15% (-0.004999999999999 -0)79.85% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Zrinjski Mostar 58.39%
    Urartu 17.9%
    Draw 23.69%
Zrinjski MostarDrawUrartu
1-0 @ 13.48%
2-0 @ 11.55%
2-1 @ 9.57% (0.0010000000000012 0)
3-0 @ 6.6% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-1 @ 5.47% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 2.83% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 2.34% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.27% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-2 @ 0.97%
5-0 @ 0.97% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 58.39%
1-1 @ 11.17%
0-0 @ 7.87% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-2 @ 3.97%
Other @ 0.69%
Total : 23.69%
0-1 @ 6.52% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
1-2 @ 4.63% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 2.7% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 1.28% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 1.1%
Other @ 1.68%
Total : 17.9%

How you voted: Zrinjski Mostar vs Urartu

Zrinjski Mostar
81.5%
Draw
11.1%
Urartu
7.4%
27
Head to Head
Jul 11, 2023 4pm
First Qualifying Round 1st Leg
Urartu
0-1
Zrinjski Mostar

Margaryan (33'), Tsymbalyuk (90+5')
Senic (89')
Bilbija (50'), Barisic (52'), Stanic (66'), Zlomislic (78'), Senic (90')
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13West Ham UnitedWest Ham196582335-1223
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15Crystal Palace194872027-720
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