We said: Larne 1-1 Rigas Futbola Skola (RFS win 4-1 on aggregate)
Losing just two of their previous six home matches in European competition, Larne should be relatively confident of avoiding a repeat of the first leg.
That being said, the chances of the Inver Reds progressing into the second round of qualifying are extremely slim, with RFS likely to extend their unbeaten run to 13 matches.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rigas Futbola Skola win with a probability of 46.83%. A win for Larne had a probability of 29.37% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rigas Futbola Skola win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.48%) and 0-2 (7.2%). The likeliest Larne win was 2-1 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rigas Futbola Skola would win this match.